137 years after the Great Seattle Fire, could it happen again after another warm, dry summer?

Saturday, June 6, marks the date of the tragic 1889 Great Seattle Fire that burned 25 blocks of downtown waterfront Seattle 137 years ago. Could it happen again?

On June 6, 1889, no precise weather records were kept at the time, but that spring had been warm and dry. On the day of the Great Seattle Fire, an inadvertently spilled glue pot in a waterfront carpentry shop along what was named Railroad Avenue (today’s Alaskan Way) started the historic Seattle fire. Stiff winds coming off Elliott Bay that warm afternoon helped fan the flames and spread the fire from one wooden structure to the next with ease. You can visit what’s left on the Seattle Underground Tour.

Warm and dry

So far this century, there have been a greater number of warm, dry springs and summers. Such dry conditions can heighten the risk of fast-spreading fires, particularly in neighborhoods where homes are close together.

Fortunately, newer structures have more fire-resistant building materials, and a state-of-the-art fire-response community can help stop such rapidly spreading fires. Yet these kinds of fires can still happen thanks to warm, dry, and breezy weather conditions. These conditions were witnessed in the Los Angeles fires in January 2025.

This weekend’s cool, showery, unsettled weather is an interruption in what has been a warmer-than-usual spring with below-average rainfall. In addition, there have already been some wildfires that started east of the Cascades from British Columbia into Oregon.

Given Western Washington’s reputation as a wet place, recent summers thus far this century have started earlier and ended later, resulting in drier conditions overall. These environments have made it easier for wildfires to start. For the last three years, Western Washington has had more wildfire starts than Eastern Washington, according to the Washington State Department of Resources; hard to fathom given the West Side’s wet reputation.

The summer weather outlook

Forecast charts for the latter part of next week and the weekend reflect a return to much warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Looking further ahead, the latest seasonal weather outlook for Western Washington, extending into September, shows good odds in favor of overall warmer-than-average temperatures, with precipitation below normal during the driest time of the year.

The eastern half of the state is already in moderate or severe drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Parts of Western Washington are also considered abnormally dry. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) is more than an inch of rain below average for the year, and Olympia is nearly three inches drier than normal.

In addition, this winter’s mountain snowpack finished at only about 50% of average. Looking at the mountains today, beyond the volcanoes, not much snow is left – about a month or so ahead of usual.

With drier, warmer summer weather in store, all these conditions increase the chances of an active wildfire season, including the possibility of wildfire smoke returning. For instance, light fuels like grasses will be drying out soon, increasing the risk of grass fires.

Can it happen again?

Neighborhoods can also be at risk of wildfire when warm, dry, and windy conditions unfold, as happened on the Seattle waterfront in 1889. Recall the Oakland Hills fire in October 1991, when a wind-whipped fire burned close to 3,500 homes and apartments, killing 25 and injuring 150. Similar conditions were in place during August 2023 in the Spokane area, with over 300 homes burned and 2 fatalities.

Another example was a number of wind-driven wildfires in Western Oregon during Labor Day Weekend near Medford, east of Eugene/Springfield, east of Salem, and in the Columbia Gorge, burning hundreds of homes in total. That same weekend here locally, the Sumner Grade fire near Bonney Lake occurred on a windy day, burning four homes and temporarily displacing hundreds of residents. Protecting neighborhoods against wildfires is critical.

What you can do

There are several actions to help prevent any wildfires from starting. For instance, it is important to keep burning materials inside vehicles and tighten tow chains to prevent sparks from dragging lines and starting roadside fires.

In addition, now is the time to prepare and build defensible space around homes and businesses to protect against wildfires. Consider this effort a part of spring yard cleaning.

Visit firewise.org for tips such as moving firewood away from your home, trimming tree limbs to above your head, and cleaning debris from roofs and gutters.

Help Smokey Bear and his motto – only you can prevent wildfires – whether in urban or rural areas. It can happen again.

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on X and Bluesky. Read more of his stories here.