Seattle New Year’s Eve weather forecast: What to expect at the Space Needle at midnight

If you woke up to a wall of white this morning, you were not alone. Dense fog blanketed the Puget Sound region Wednesday, reducing visibility and slowing commutes across the I-5 corridor from Lacey to Everett.

So what caused it?

“We’ve got a nice little inversion going on where there’s a bit of warmer air aloft,” meteorologist Scott Sistek of the Emerald City Weather Blog told “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio Wednesday. “When we get these clear nights, the heat from the day radiates back out into space. It gets much cooler near the surface, and that cold air can reach the saturation point.”

The result is dense fog trapped beneath a layer of warmer air, like clouds being squished together. This is typical winter weather for western Washington when clear, cold nights meet calm conditions.

Seattle New Year’s Eve 2025 weather forecast: What to expect at midnight

Good news for the hundreds of thousands expected to gather at Seattle Center and across western Washington for New Year’s Eve celebrations: the forecast looks dry and calm.

New Year’s Eve will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 40s. Some fog may linger into the afternoon in Lewis and parts of Thurston counties, but most of the Puget Sound region will see improving conditions.

At midnight, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds. No rain is expected.

For those heading to Seattle Center to watch Alaska Airlines’ New Year’s at the Needle, conditions should be ideal for viewing the fireworks and drone show. The event features a drone performance illuminating the Seattle skyline, building to what organizers call the largest structurally launched firework display in North America. The best viewing spots are the International Fountain Lawn and Fisher Pavilion.

“Don’t bring your rain jackets tonight, but just be ready for some patchy fog on your way home,” Sistek said.

Western Washington weather forecast: Rain returns New Year’s Day

The dry stretch will not last long. Rain chances return late Thursday evening, and by Friday, areas of light rain move in with highs climbing back into the low 50s. Higher mountain slopes will pick up a few inches of snow.

Weather systems moving in over the weekend will bring more rain and mountain snow, with breezy conditions possible. By late in the week or over the weekend, some minor coastal flooding problems could return with another round of high astronomical tides.

Seattle January 2026 weather forecast: Chilly with possible dry stretch

Looking further ahead, Sistek said January is shaping up to be chillier than December.

After the unsettled weather early next week, models are hinting at a shift around mid-January.

“Some of the models are hinting we’re going to go back into a rather dry period again, where we may just be playing this game like we have this morning: morning fog, then sun, over and over,” Sistek said. “It gets down to 27 to 32 at night, we get some frost and fog, it burns off, blazing sunshine, and repeat.”

Seattle snow forecast 2026: Is there still hope?

For the kids holding out hope for a snow day, Sistek said the clock has not run out.

“It’s been funny because I’ve been joking it’s like Lucy with the football,” Sistek said. “We talked before Thanksgiving like, ‘Oh, it might snow at Thanksgiving.’ Then it was supposed to be the weeks after Thanksgiving. Then we were teasing about a white Christmas in the long range, and that of course went away.”

Snow is not in the forecast for the next ten to fourteen days, but Sistek said the weak La Niña pattern this year favors late-season snow.

“The last few times we’ve had it, the snow has been waiting until late January and February,” Sistek said. “Even this year, our one big snow event was the first week of February. I don’t think the clock has run out by any means. If you’re looking at it as a football game, we’re maybe getting close to halftime. I think we’ve got plenty of snow game left to play.”

National Weather Service adding AI to weather forecasting in 2026

The National Weather Service is introducing artificial intelligence to its forecasting operations in 2026, and Sistek said it could revolutionize how meteorologists predict the weather.

Traditional computer models work like a physics professor solving an enormous equation on a chalkboard, Sistek explained. It takes hours and supercomputers across the world to crunch all the data for a single model run.

The new AI approach is fundamentally different. By training on decades of global weather data, the AI model works like having a meteorologist stationed at every point on the globe, each with 40 years of experience at that exact location.

“The model says, ‘Here’s what’s happening now,’ and all the experts talk to each other in instant time,” Sistek said. “It spits out a forecast within an hour on one computer. It takes a fraction of the time and a fraction of the resources, and it’s looking pretty promising for accuracy.”

Sistek said the technology will allow forecasters to run more models in less time, giving them more data points to shape predictions. While no forecast will ever be perfect, he believes the AI tools could improve accuracy and efficiency.

“I think it’ll help revolutionize how we do forecasts,” Sistek said. “It’s never going to be 100 percent, but it may be better than where we are now.”

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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