Cliff Mass ‘not convinced’ WA will have a ‘big wildfire season’ this year

Despite the month of May logging less than an inch of rain (0.83 inches, less than 50% of the average for the month), according to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac) readings, Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington (UW), believes this year’s wildfire season will not be that significant.

“This year is actually starting quite slowly. We’re actually well below normal in terms of wildfires and, at this point in time, I’m not convinced this is going to be a big wildfire season,” Mass said on “The John Curley Show” on KIRO Newsradio. “We’re starting slow because we had a dry spring. There isn’t a lot of grass out there. It’s actually below normal, the fuels in eastern Washington. At this point, I don’t think we’re sure how things will turn out.”

For the year, Sea-Tac Airport is close to five inches of rain below average, and Olympia is nearly eight inches below average. Everett is a whopping 10 inches behind average, logging only 34% of its average annual rainfall totals.

But, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the total amount of acres burned in Washington is the second lowest since 2015, even with spring precipitation being below normal levels.

How could the wildfire area be less with warmer, drier conditions?

Mass stated that in order to have a wildfire, there needs to be ignition, sufficient fuels, dry fuels, and supportive meteorological conditions, with wind being the most important.

“Precipitation during late winter and spring is important for producing bountiful light fuels, such as grasses and range-type vegetation,” Mass wrote in his weather blog. “Rainfall deficit has resulted in normal to lower than normal amounts of annual vegetation over much of the region.”

The extended precipitation forecast for this summer shows drier-than-normal conditions.

“Since thunderstorms are the big precipitation producers for much of the summer (particularly east of the Cascade crest), this implies fewer thunderstorms,” Mass continued. “This means fewer lightning starts and fewer ignitions. This implies less wildfire activity.”

August and September are the state’s most susceptible months to wildfires. As of this reporting, precipitation expectations are near normal for August, and wetter than normal in September.

Follow Frank Sumrall on X. Send news tips here.