Iran’s barrage of attacks across the Persian Gulf shows regional chaos is key to its strategy

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — For years, Iran’s theocratic government warned it would blanket the Middle East with missile and drone fire if it felt its existence was threatened.

Now, the Islamic Republic is doing just that.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war Saturday and killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has unleashed thousands of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israel, American military bases and embassies in the region, and energy facilities across the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, there’s been Iranian missile fire on Turkey and drones targeting territory of Azerbaijan.

Iran’s basic strategy is to instill fear about the dangers of a widening war in hopes that allies of the U.S. will apply enough pressure to halt their campaign. A protracted conflict, along with American and Israeli casualties, could also work in Iran’s favor.

Trouble is, the barrage-thy-neighbors strategy also could backfire.

A bid to wear down regional defenses and instill fear

Iran’s first priority is to emerge from the war with its state institutions intact, said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Iran is upping the costs for this U.S. military campaign and regionalizing it from the get-go, as they promised they would if America restarts the war again with Iran,” she said. The U.S. joined Israel last June in a 12-day war, targeting nuclear enrichment sites. Iran maintains its program is peaceful, though its officials had threatened to pursue a bomb while enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade levels.

Iran’s leaders believe that by inflicting casualties and disrupting energy production to drive up oil and gas prices, America’s allies or an unsettled public back home will pressure U.S. President Donald Trump to ease back.

“The Iranians are banking on basically out-stomaching him, and exhausting him and his allies to the point where they would basically have a diplomatic off-ramp,” Geranmayeh said. Trump is unpredictable, Geranmayeh said, but for now he appears to be pressing for “unconditional surrender to his demands, rather than a negotiated settlement.”

The U.S. and Israel have carried out hundreds of airstrikes and inflicted heavy damage on Iranian government, military and nuclear targets. Despite being greatly outgunned, Iran has continued to fire ballistic missiles into Israel, killing 11 people and disrupting life for millions of Israelis. More have been killed in the Gulf Arab states, while the U.S.-Israeli campaign has killed 1,045 people in Iran.

After more than two years of war in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli public appears to have little appetite for another lengthy round of fighting. Polls suggest the U.S. public is leery of a protracted conflict.

Friends and onetime foes hit alike by Iran

The American and Israeli onslaught came after a string of U.S.-Iranian talks over Iran’s nuclear program and the West’s sanctions failed to reach a breakthrough.

Trump said Monday his four objectives were to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, wipe out its navy, prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensure that it cannot continue to support allied armed groups.

The Iranian response has spared no one in the region, not even Oman, which mediated the latest round of nuclear talks and for decades has maintained a close relationship to Iran after it helped the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said put down a rebellion in the 1970s.

Last week, as the U.S. amassed warships in the region, Oman’s foreign minister rushed to Washington in a last-ditch effort to keep the nuclear talks going.

Since then, Oman has been dragged into the conflict. An Omani port and ships off its coast have been targeted by Iranian missiles. Oman’s port at Duqm helped the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with pre-deployment logistics.

Saudi Arabia, which has maintained a detente with Tehran since 2023, also came in the crosshairs this week. Its Ras Tanura oil refinery has been repeatedly attacked and the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh got hit by drones — an embarrassing moment for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has worked to cultivate a close relationship with Trump.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which also have close ties to Trump, have been repeatedly targeted, too.

Missile math grows more important

There’s a grim math equation at play as the war goes on. Iran has a finite number of missiles and drones, just as the Gulf Arab states, the U.S. and Israel all have a limited number of interceptor missiles capable of downing the incoming fire.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that thousands of Iranian missiles and drones have been “intercepted and vaporized” during the war. The Israeli military says it has destroyed dozens of missile launchers.

From the American and Israeli side, targeting missiles and their launchers remains key. Both countries had to shoot down Iranian missiles during the war in June and multiple times in the Israel-Hamas war.

“In simple terms, we are focused on shooting all the things that can shoot at us,” said U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of the American military’s Central Command.

A senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said Iran has several days’ worth of ballistic missiles if it continues firing at current rates, but it may hold some back to wage a longer campaign.

The Israeli military says the number of Iranian launches has greatly diminished in recent days as a result of the airstrikes — though warning sirens wailed seemingly constantly across Israel on Wednesday into Thursday.

Iran’s strategy may be backfiring

Iran’s strategy of trying to threaten energy security, drive a wedge between Gulf and Western states and raise costs is “backfiring,” said Hasan Alhasan, a Middle East expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“It’s driving and pushing the Gulf states into closer alignment with the United States,” he said.

“The Gulf states can’t simply sit idle and continue absorbing indefinite attacks to their critical infrastructure and to civilians in Gulf cities,” Alhasan said. They are probably trying to both acquire more weapons to intercept incoming fire and find ways to broker an end to the war, he said.

Iran’s foreign minister has suggested his country’s military units are now isolated and acting independently from any central government control, a possible excuse for Iran’s increasingly erratic fire.

“They are acting based on instructions — you know, general instructions — given to them in advance,” Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Sunday.

But after a Wednesday phone call with Araghchi, Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, “categorically rejected” his assertion that Iranian missiles were only directed at American interests and not intended to target Qatar.

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Keaten reported from Geneva. Associated Press writers Danica Kirka and Jill Lawless in London contributed to this report.