Dotzauer: ‘Don’t read too much into primary election results’

The pairings are almost all but complete for the general election in Washington, but political analyst Ron Dotzauer said “Don’t read too much into the primary results.”

With a voter turnout of around 35% for the primary and expected participation of about 75% in the general election, Dotzauer told “Seattle’s Morning News” on Wednesday the numbers will shift in dramatic ways.

“You’re going to more than double the turnout in a general election,” Dotzauer said. “I think what you’re going to see here is we’re going to have a very competitive race for governor, irrespective what the numbers may look like in the primary.”

Projection: Ferguson, Reichert square off in Washington governor’s race

He was referring to the primary results in the governor’s race that, at 11 a.m. Wednesday, had Bob Ferguson with 45% of the vote (460,000) and Dave Reichert with 28% (282,000). Dotzauer believes that in the general election, Washington will see very competitive numbers.

“(Reichert) has some he has some inroads into King County,” Dotzauer said. “That’s that’s a big deal as a Republican if you’re running statewide. He was the sheriff. He was the congressman from the eighth Congressional District that had a big chunk of King County.”

His biggest challenge, Dotzauer believes, is having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket which is obviously something he cannot control.

“What if Dave Reichert just came out and said, ‘Look, obviously I disagree with Trump on abortion. I disagree with some of the craziness. I’m running for Governor of Washington State, and I have no connection with him,'” Dotzauer said. “That’s probably would be the best thing he could do.”

Other races: Cantwell cruises; Serrano, Brown in AG race; dead heat for Lands Commissioner

“The issue of women’s right to choose may harm Bob Ferguson’s candidacy,” he added.

There were some eyebrow-raisers in other races as well. In the Attorney General category, Republican Pete Serrano is out in front with 41% of the vote (416,000) at 11 a.m. He’ll be facing Democrat Nick Brown with 36% (357,000) of the primary voters.

“I think that Mr. Brown is probably going to win that attorney general’s race, and I don’t expect it to be, to be honest with you, very competitive,” Dotzauer said.

In the Public Lands Commissioner race, Republican Jamie Herrera Butler was leading with 22.64% (222,000). Sue Kuehl Pederson, another Republican, had 20% (198,000). However, Democrat Dave Upthegrove is close behind also at 20% (194,000).

“Democrats filed too many people,” Dotzauer said. “They had three or three or four, quote, unquote, viable candidates, and they split up all the Democratic votes,” Dotzauer said.

He explained that America is very politically divided but Washington is slightly different.

“At the end of the day, particularly in Washington state, if you want to be electorally successful, you have to be somewhere in the middle,” Rotzauer said. “There’s probably 15 to 20% of the voters who are independents, in terms of how they approach their ballot, and those are the folks at the end of the day, they determine the outcome statewide races in Washington state.”