Hot summer could lead into warm winter
Jun 22, 2015, 5:43 PM | Updated: Jun 23, 2015, 5:54 am
There may be less of a chance to cool off this winter after a hot summer. (File/Alpental webcam)
(File/Alpental webcam)
There may be less of a chance to cool off this winter after a hot summer.
All forecasts from the NOAA Climate Forecast System for sea surface temperatures call for warmer than normal conditions, University of Washington Professor Cliff Mass writes. And a warmer sea surface could mean a dryer winter.
There is a 90 percent probability rate for an El Nino winter.
“The bottom line is that El Nino, and particularly a strong El Nino, heavily rolls the atmospheric dice for a less stormy, warmer and a bit drier Pacific Northwest,” Mass writes.
But what will the effects be?
The Northwest hasn’t seen a strong El Nino since 1997-1998, according to Mass. The global effects of that were “profound.” It included heavy rainfall in California with flooding and landslides in the winter.
“We are sure to have at least a moderate El Nino,” Mass writes.
That means modestly low precipitation; at least slightly warmer than normal temperatures; less chance of lowland snow; below-normal snowpack in the mountains; and less chance of windstorms and floods.
Western Oregon and Washington will be dry, particularly the western slopes of the Cascades, Mass reports. California will be wetter than normal.
Though snowpack will be reduced, it will not be “end of the world” reduced, according to Mass. There is anywhere from a 10 to 20 percent decrease of snowpack in El Nino years, which would be better than last winter’s 75 percent reduction.
“So the Cascade snowpack may be below normal, but will undoubtedly be much better than last year!”
Still, nothing is certain, Mass writes. What kind of winter the Northwest has is up to whether there is a moderate or strong El Nino.
