Arm the rebels?

Is it time to send weapons to the Syrian rebels trying to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad? The Obama Administration wants al-Assad gone, but the President can’t quite bring himself to arm the rebels, since their most effective fighters are members of a radical Islamic faction allied with al-Qaeda.

No one seems to be quite sure who the good guys are. Which appears to be why Senator John McCain decided to travel to Syria himself. McCain has argued for some time that we ought to be arming the Syrian rebels.

“We have said that they need a no-fly zone and to supply the resistance with weapons and Iranians are in the ground in Syria and it’s an unfair fight,” said McCain.

The European Union has now decided to lift the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition after June 1 — and between that and Senator McCain’s visit it’s looking like there will be even more pressure on the U.S. to do the same.

“That seems to counter his wider lobbying campaign in the United States, to push the United States to suggest that these rebels are moderate, friendly faces that can be done business with,” explained Dr. Christopher Phillips, a teacher at the University of London, and has studied the Arab spring.

But will additional weapons do any good? Or just touch off an arms race in the Syrian conflict?

“The other parties involved in this conflict, backing al-Assad – Russian and Iran – are willing to send just as many weapons if not more than those that France and Britain would be providing.

He said Russia and Iran will match the west weapon for weapon. “They cannot afford to lose Syria and consequently they’re going to commit as much as they possibly can to make sure that al-Assad survives.”

That means the war could get bigger. “It’s likely to draw in all manner of actors whether it be Hezbollah, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Quatar, Iraq and so on.

The Islamic radicals of Hezbollah are especially driven to keep Bashar al-Assad in power. Phillips said, “Hezbollah are very, very concerned if the Assad regime does fall its lifeline with Iran, it’s over-land supply link would be cut.”

Bottom line — if you think supplying weapons will bring a quick end to the war, “Even if France and Britain send new weapons it’s highly likely they’ll be matched by Assaad-allies and the civil war will continue,” said Phillips. “And negotiations won’t take place.”