Harger: 5 things I’m watching as Washington ballots hit mailboxes, from WA-3 to the income tax

Ballots start landing in Washington mailboxes a week from today, on Friday, Oct. 16. Election night is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

There’s a lot of noise around this election. Every day brings a new poll, a new forecast, and a new mailer telling you the stakes have never been higher. So I’ve been trying to drill down on the handful of things that will tell us the most when the results come in. Five of them are sitting on my desk right now: Southwest Washington’s congressional race, the blue wave forecasts, the I-645 income tax repeal, a Let’s Go Washington poll that’s missing some pieces, and the Washington Supreme Court races.

1. Southwest Washington’s 3rd District is a coin flip

When I was a kid in Pacific County in the early 1980s, it was about as Democratic as Washington got. Blue-collar, and full of FDR New Deal Democrats. A couple of decades of economic and cultural change turned it into one of the most reliably Republican corners of the state.

That’s the 3rd Congressional District today, known as WA-3. It runs heavily red, with one big exception. Vancouver, basically a Portland suburb, anchors the blue end.

Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has won the district twice as a contrarian Democrat, both times against Joe Kent, a colorful and divisive Republican. This time she’s up against John Braun, a far more traditional Republican, and he finished ahead of her in the August primary, about 40% to 36%. The general election is much different than the primary. We’re about to find out whether those two previous wins were about her or about Kent.

Her path runs straight through Vancouver. The play for Gluesenkamp Perez is to run up the numbers there as high as she possibly can, enough to offset the red counties that make up the rest of the district. Watch the Clark County returns on election night. If her margin there is thinner than it was against Kent, that’s trouble.

A late-September DHM Research poll for OPB had Braun at 48% and Gluesenkamp Perez at 47%. That’s within the margin of error, which pollsters call a “coin flip.” National prognosticators say this seat could help decide who controls the House. If a blue tsunami rolls in on election night, all bets are off. If the wave doesn’t show up here, it raises questions about purple districts all over the country.

2. Silver Bulletin and Kalshi see a blue wave. I’ve heard that before

Plenty of smart forecasters say a Democratic wave is coming. In late September, Silver Bulletin, FiftyPlusOne, and Split Ticket all argued the traditional race raters, the people who sort races into “toss-up” and “lean” columns, are lowballing it.

People are putting real money on it, too. Kalshi lets you bet on election outcomes, and bettors there put the odds of a blue wave around 83%.

History is on their side. The party holding the White House usually loses House seats in a midterm, and plenty of voters are in a mood to send a message.

I think a blue wave is more likely than not.

But I’ve done this long enough to remember how sure some of these same voices were in 2016 and 2024. Confidence isn’t the same as being right. And three and a half weeks is a long time in politics. A lot can fall apart between now and Nov. 3.

There’s another wrinkle. Some in Republican circles say plenty of Trump supporters simply don’t answer pollsters. I have no idea if that’s true. Nobody does, which is sort of the point. If it is true, the polling could be off, and this might not be the wave people are expecting.

So I’m keeping two things in my head at once. The wave is probably coming. And “probably” has burned a lot of smart people before.

3. The I-645 income tax repeal is in trouble

Quick refresher. In March, Gov. Bob Ferguson signed a 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million. It doesn’t kick in until 2028, and only a sliver of the state would pay it, roughly 25,000 households by recent estimates. I-645, from Brian Heywood’s Let’s Go Washington, would repeal the tax and ban future state and local income taxes.

DHM Research surveyed 800 Washington residents Sept. 14 through Sept. 21 and split them into two groups. One group saw the measure exactly the way it’ll appear on the ballot.

Keep the tax: 57%.

Repeal it: 35%.

The other group saw the same measure without the attorney general’s statement that repeal would cut funding for education and human services. That race was a lot closer. Keep the tax: 44%. Repeal it: 40%. Undecided: 16%.

So one statement on the ballot turned a near tie into a 22-point gap.

A couple of caveats. DHM surveyed residents, not likely voters, and each group was only about 400 people. Even so, that swing is bigger than the margin of error.

I’ve written about that ballot language before. It survived a court challenge, and it’s what voters will see, so the 57-35 number is the one that counts.

You may recall the DHM name from the 3rd District race above. Republicans have been happily passing around the firm’s poll showing Braun slightly ahead. They’re a lot quieter about this one. Same pollster. Same month.

4. Let’s Go Washington’s poll is missing some pieces

Let’s Go Washington has two other measures on your ballot, and it released polling on both this week.

I-001, the parental rights initiative, would undo the Legislature’s 2025 rewrite of the parents’ bill of rights, restoring things like parents’ access to their kids’ school medical records. Support: 51%.

I-638, the girls’ sports initiative, would keep students who are biologically male out of girls’ school sports, and would require a statement from a health care provider verifying a student’s sex. Support: 56%.

Many voters are still undecided on both.

Those are interesting numbers this close to ballots dropping. Campaigns release their own polls all the time, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s also why the details matter. The release says people were read the official ballot titles, which is a good sign. It doesn’t say who ran the poll, how many people were surveyed, or whether it was done by phone or online.

So it’s unclear how reliable these numbers are. I’ve reached out to Let’s Go Washington for those details. Once I hear back, I’ll share what I learn.

Notice what’s missing, too. The release says nothing about I-645, the group’s own income tax repeal and the biggest measure on the ballot. If the poll asked about it, Let’s Go Washington isn’t sharing the answer. Campaigns tend to release the numbers they like. Draw your own conclusions.

5. Washington Supreme Court races are nonpartisan in name only

Washington Supreme Court races are nonpartisan on the ballot, and they’re easy to skip down at the bottom. The parties have always had favorites. This year, they’re much more overt about it, openly endorsing and promoting candidates in mailers and online ads.

The reason isn’t hard to spot. If the income tax itself ends up in front of these justices, whoever wins these seats could decide whether it survives. Both parties know it, and they’re spending like it.

What Washington’s election night could tell us

Look at these five together, and a pattern shows up. Somebody is always telling you how this ends. The forecasters, the bettors, the campaigns, the pollsters. Some of them will be right. Some of them have been very sure before and very wrong.

None of it is decided until you mail that ballot back.

Join me on election night for a live, three-hour special from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. with guests and results as they come in. It’s on KIRO Newsradio and streaming on MyNorthwest and YouTube Live.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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