Understanding one of the big unknowns with life under Trump
Dec 5, 2016, 9:25 AM
One of the big unknowns, when Donald Trump becomes president, is what happens to trade with China, which could affect everything from the price of smartphones and sneakers to the number of jobs here in Washington.
James Fallows, a former presidential speech writer and long-time China correspondent, says for starters, the Chinese government still can’t believe Trump became president.
“The United States, which is still so much richer than China … has in an important way, faltered, from China’s point of view,” he said. “Bringing somebody to power that is not experienced, is not connected in Asia or the rest of the world. The first impression I got in this past week was, ‘what happened to you all?'”
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And Fallows, who recently wrote “China’s great leap backward” for the Atlantic, believes people in China are actually hoping Trump is naive enough that they can manipulate him.
“I think, in a cynical fashion, there was a sense among some of the politicians I talked to in China that they might be able to work on Donald Trump the same magic Vladimir Putin seems to have; of flattering him … and therefore becoming a friend rather than an adversary.”
If anything, Fallows says, it could open a strategic possibility for China to grow its influence.
And as for Trump’s threat of a massive tax on Chinese imports, Fallows doesn’t think China takes that seriously. Especially the threat to move iPhone production back to the U.S.
“I will tell you, there is no one involved in the technology business who thinks that is possible,” he said. Bringing production of devices such as the iPhone probably wouldn’t even grow the job market by that much, he added. It would just mean more robots in California.
I’ve seen one estimate that a totally American-made iPhone — depending on how you define that — could cost anywhere from $900 to $2,000.
But while China may be an economic threat— Fallows says it’s not a big military threat. Yes, it is building those artificial islands in the South China Sea, but the real military threat is still North Korea.
“There’s one sort of outlier category and then there is everything else,” he said. “Almost everyone agrees that [North Korea] is becoming a genuinely dangerous situation.”
China also has an interesting take on the fake news issue. They look at the spread of fake news in the U.S. and its possible effect on the presidential election and see a vindication of their decision to continue censoring the Internet.
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