‘The most insane 24 hours’: Political analyst says U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens’ endorsement flip won’t sink El-Sayed

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens’ last-minute endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race was a spectacle, but it probably won’t change the outcome, MS NOW political analyst and Morgan State University professor Jason Johnson said.

“It is the most insane 24 hours I have ever seen in campaign politics that didn’t involve a scandal,” Johnson said on “The Gee and Ursula Show” on KIRO Newsradio.

Stevens, a Democrat, lost the August primary to Abdul El-Sayed. She had been scheduled to appear with him at a Detroit church event Sunday meant to show party unity. Instead, she showed up with Rogers at another church and endorsed him, NPR reported.

Stevens said El-Sayed made it clear she wasn’t welcome in his campaign.

“I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close this campaign by saying I wasn’t welcome,” she told reporters.

‘It’s the proximity to the election that makes it crazy’

KIRO host Ursula Reutin asked how big a deal it is for a sitting Democrat to back a Republican this close to the election.

Johnson said endorsements across party lines aren’t unusual. The timing is what stood out.

“Cross-party endorsements happen,” he said. “What doesn’t happen is you spend the entire night on the phone with Nancy Pelosi, AOC, Debbie Dingell, all the important Democrats in the world … and then the next morning, you decide I’m going to go and endorse the opposition candidate.”

Gee and Ursula played a clip in Stevens’ interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, which included a long, awkward silence after one of his questions.

Johnson said the episode could cost Stevens more than it costs El-Sayed.

“I think in the grand scheme of things, it won’t change the outcome of the election, but it definitely has changed the trajectory of her career,” he said.

Johnson expects El-Sayed to win

When KIRO host Gee Scott asked who will win, Johnson picked El-Sayed. He pointed to President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, Michigan’s lean toward Democrats and a Rogers campaign he said waited too long to define his opponent.

He said recent polls he’s seen show El-Sayed leading by about seven points, though he expects a closer finish.

Johnson also told listeners what to watch Tuesday night. Michigan’s big cities usually report results quickly, so El-Sayed will likely jump out to an early lead. Rogers should then gain ground as rural counties come in. If Rogers’ lead stays under about 3% after the rural vote, Johnson said, that’s a good sign for El-Sayed, because Detroit and Lansing will keep adding votes later.

Texas turnout could favor Democrats

Gee asked about Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is running for Senate against Republican Ken Paxton.

Johnson pointed to early voting data showing many people casting ballots who didn’t vote in 2024, including strong turnout in heavily Latino counties.

“Nine times out of 10, those are people who are dissatisfied with the status quo, and they’re likely to vote for the out party,” he said.

He said he doesn’t expect Texans to vote out Gov. Greg Abbott, but he thinks Talarico has a real chance.

‘People are going to be just as angry’

Gee asked what a Democratic wave would actually mean for everyday Americans.

Johnson warned that it won’t fix everything people are upset about, including gas prices, affordability and the war with Iran. A Democratic Congress can investigate agencies and fight over funding, he said, but it can’t run the country on its own.

He said if Democrats win, they’ll have until about June to show voters real change.

“If they get into power and waste it and don’t do anything different, and spend all their time telling us what they can’t do because of Donald Trump, people are going to be just as angry,” Johnson said.

‘A do-nothing versus do-something election’

Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take the House, Ursula noted. She asked whether one state could decide control.

Johnson said no. He pointed to competitive races in places he didn’t expect this summer, including Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Mississippi, and said the full picture may not be clear until Thursday or Friday.

He said high turnout is a good sign, and he argued that this year isn’t really about left versus right.

“This is a do-nothing versus do-something election,” Johnson said. “People want to vote for somebody who’s going to do something because they’re unhappy with where the country is.”

Watch the full discussion in the video above.

Listen to Gee and Ursula on “The Gee and Ursula Show” weekday mornings from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. on KIRO Newsradio.