Harger on the WA budget crisis: Will Gov. Ferguson keep his no-tax promise this time?

With a multi-billion dollar shortfall looming, the 2025 legislative session is shaping up to be a showdown over taxes and spending.

We’re about a month out from the next legislative session, and Washington has a problem. Again.

The state budget has grown 96% over the past decade, twice as fast as inflation. Democrats control both chambers by massive margins, and they’ve made expensive promises to their constituents. Programs they’d very much like to keep funding.

Meanwhile, they’re projecting a multi-billion dollar shortfall over the next few years. That money will not magically appear. I’ve checked under my couch cushions.

Here’s a thought: Maybe we don’t add new programs right now. Or we pause some we committed to when revenues looked rosier. Just spitballing, but when you’re short on money, you generally don’t take on new expenses. That was conventional wisdom once. Check out what Democrats said about this in the 90s: it was their party line.

Three positions, three very different messages

This week, we heard from the key players in Olympia. It was fascinating.

The progressive approach: Rep. Shaun Scott’s corporate tax

First up: Representative Shaun Scott, the self-described socialist who’s become the darling of upstart progressives. He held a press conference on the Capitol steps proposing a big corporate payroll tax.

“The Well Washington Fund funds our future,” Scott announced. “It will generate $3 billion annually to support public programs.”

Here’s what struck me: Not a single other state lawmaker stood with him. One out of 147 legislators. That’s lonely.

The leadership hedge: “All options on the table”

Then you have the Democrats running things: House Speaker Laurie Jinkins and Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen. They’re not saying they’ll raise taxes. But they’re definitely not NOT saying it either. Lots of “exploring options” and “nothing’s off the table” and “we need to look at revenue.”

That’s politician-speak for “yes, but we’re not ready to say ‘yes’ yet.”

Governor Ferguson: No new taxes (for real this time, I swear)

Then there’s the big cheese. Governor Bob Ferguson was very clear this week: No tax hikes. Cuts only. We’re balancing this budget with spending reductions, period.

When asked directly by a reporter if his budget proposal would include any new revenue, Ferguson responded: “Where I’m at is still the same, I don’t plan on balancing the budget with new revenue.”

Huh. Where have I heard that before?

Maybe you’re thinking of President George H.W. Bush’s famous “Read my lips: No new taxes” pledge.

Wait, that wasn’t it.

The $9 billion question

No, it was last year. Last legislative session. When Governor Ferguson said he was cutting spending, no tax increases. Then he signed the largest tax increase in state history. $9 billion over four years.

Seven months ago.

Maybe he means it this time. Maybe he’s upset he broke that promise. Maybe he’ll hold the line against his own party’s near supermajority. It’s possible.

But I suspect Representative Scott won’t be quite so lonely on those Capitol steps when this is all said and done.

A word to the minority party

Quick word to Republicans: You don’t have to like Ferguson. You definitely don’t have to trust him. But what are your options? You’re outnumbered. By a lot. So maybe do two things: Present a clear alternative that appeals to moderates, not just “cut everything,” but specific cuts that make sense. And make it easier for Ferguson to keep his word than break it. Help moderate Democrats find their spines.

Because just being against everything isn’t a plan when you’re this outnumbered.

We’ll find out in January when the 2025 Washington State legislative session convenes.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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