Curley: A storm is coming for Washington nonprofits as the rich head for the exits

We would drive down Sefton Road when we were kids, and we would look for the cows. The cows were in this big field, and we would wait to see, and we’d be driving back home again to see if they were lying down. Now, cows will lie down between 10 and 14 hours a day, but when a storm is coming — and the storm is coming — the barometer changes, and it affects their joints, and it makes cows uncomfortable. So that’s why they lie down just before a storm.

Well, the storm is coming, and what the cows will do, normally, is turn their back to the wind. They will cluster together, or they’ll try to find some sort of shelter. That’s what a cow does. And if it starts to rain and if it gets hotter, the milk production drops anywhere between 10 and 30%, so they produce less milk because of storms. Well, the storm is coming, and the sacrificial cows — the rich, that is — they are showing early signs of turning their back towards the wind and leaving.

The wealthy are flying away

I checked Zillow on the advice of a friend of mine. He said, just check Zillow and see what it looks like when it comes to big, big homes that are in Medina, Bellevue, Seattle. There’s been a 50% increase in the homes that are now on the market. Well, there’s one for you right there. Pick that little beauty up for $12 million, or that one for $7.9 million. Again, a 50% increase in the mega mansions, the giant homes, the $30 million homes, they’re on the market. And why? Because the wealthy know that they need to fly away.

This is advice that I received from a respected estate planner, and here’s what he’s telling his high-net-worth people: he says, “Cut all ties. Leave nothing behind — no home, no cabin, no car, no toys. Quit the country club. Leave local boards. Drop out of your churches, leave the Rotary, leave the synagogues. Leave nothing behind. Leave no bread crumbs for the Department of Revenue to try to find out where you are living next. Cut all ties to the state of Washington, and that will also include donations to local charities. Stop funding the arts, stop funding medical research, stop funding anything that is a nonprofit in the state of Washington.”

Now, I can tell you, as an auctioneer who has been doing this since 2009, I know that the rich spend millions, if not billions, and billions of dollars. They buy items that none of us could possibly buy, because the rich can get anything they want. But can you imagine flying in a private jet, flying to London, and meeting the director of Hamilton, and then meeting with a choreographer on Tuesday, being fitted for a costume on Wednesday, doing a rehearsal with a cast of Hamilton on Thursday, and then being in the show when the curtain goes up in London on Saturday? I sold that eight years ago for $565,000.

Now, for you and me and just about anybody else, that seems like a lot of money, but not to the super-rich. The nonprofit benefits from it.

But of course, the rich get a chance to talk about the fact that, “Oh, did you see Hamilton?”

Person says, “Yes, I did.”

“Oh, when did you see it?”

“I saw it on a Saturday in London.”

“Oh, really, I was in it.”

So it’s those kinds of bragging rights that go along with it.

Now, speaking of nonprofits, I remember one time being at an event just for the auction, it was raining outside, and everyone there was very upset, because apparently there’s an older lady (we’ll call her Miss Betty), didn’t like to drive in the rain, but without Miss Betty being there, they were concerned that we’d lose about 40% of the amount of money that they were hoping to gain. So somebody, I guess, an intern or volunteer, jumped in the car and drove to Miss Betty’s house, picked her up, and drove her to the auction, because she was like an ATM machine rolling on in there, and they needed to get the money.

There are 47,200 nonprofits in the state of Washington, and 73% of them are reporting insufficient funds, meaning they have just enough operating costs to last them anywhere between one and six months on hand. So what will they do? Well, the problem is that the people that you’re taxing, the people that give money to these nonprofits, are leaving.

Studies that say, well, people don’t leave when you raise taxes — that’s flawed, and I’ll explain why it’s flawed, because the study doesn’t look at income, it just simply looks at everybody. Well, if you look at everybody, you’re like, “Well, people don’t leave when taxes go up.” No, but if you broke it down and looked purely at income levels, it would tell you a completely different story, because that study lumps all taxpayers in together.

Nonprofits will be washed away in the storm

But the rich know that the storm is coming. The house is on the market, and the business license transfers. The kids are not being enrolled in the private schools in 2026, so what happens when the storm comes? Well, it’s going to get upgraded for the rest of us up to a Level 3 hurricane, and nonprofits will be washed away.

Because who will care for the woman who’s recently been diagnosed with cancer, who doesn’t have the strength or the stomach to take the bus? Who will drive her to her chemotherapy? Who will help set the leg of the eagle that was injured when it was hit by a car? What child’s dreams will come true when they can’t dance in the ballet, or they don’t learn to play the French horn? None of those dreams come true because the rich will leave, the nonprofits will suffer, and so will the rest of us.

When capital gains went from 7% to 9.9%, the super-rich in Washington, you say, “Well, that’s only point 5% of the population.” Sure, and when voters had a chance in 2024 to stop the storm, they voted for an increase in capital gains tax, and the dark clouds started forming.

Keep these things in mind when voting

The rich, like the cows, felt the storm. There will be another chance to part the clouds, probably this year, and as your black pen hovers over that little bubble as to what you intend to do, you should keep a few things in mind. You should keep in mind who will take care of the stray dog? Who will cook the pot of soup for the hungry? Who will possibly teach the fourth grader to read? How will you learn to play the oboe? On YouTube?

The old truism that there are only two things in life that are certain: death and taxes. I will edit that for the sake of this. Taxes equal death for the arts, charities, and the local economy. The good news, and there is good news in this, that $75 million house that you see that’s got seven bedrooms and 12 baths, it has an unobstructed view of the water and the sky, so you’ll certainly see the clouds coming into view, the rain, the thunder, and the storms that will get all of us wet and some will drown.

Listen to John Curley weekday afternoons from 3 – 7 p.m. on KIRO Newsradio, 97.3 FM. Subscribe to the podcast here.

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