Harger: Washington ballots are on kitchen tables. Here are five things I’m watching as they come back
Oct 19, 2026, 8:31 AM | Updated: 1:30 pm
By now, your ballot should be sitting on your kitchen table.
This was the first weekend with ballots in hand, and in kitchens all over Washington, people sat down with a pen and a cup of coffee and got it done. My wife and I ripped the Band-Aid off and voted. Our daughter is 18, just out of high school, and voting for the first time. She’s still going over her ballot, carefully working through the state voter guide. She takes it more seriously than some people who’ve been voting for 30 years.
I’ve covered state politics for a while now, so as ballots start coming back, here’s what I’m keeping an eye on.
1. Early Washington ballot returns will show who’s fired up
Starting Tuesday, the Secretary of State posts daily ballot return numbers. If returns run well ahead of 2022 and 2024, that’s an early read on how fired up voters are, and where.
This one feels like a referendum on President Trump and the other Washington more than on Olympia, even with three initiatives on our ballot.
A word of caution. A national Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found only 31% of registered voters are following the midterms closely, down from 37% in 2022. The share “absolutely certain” to vote slipped from 70% in April to 63%. Angry and engaged aren’t always the same voter.
2. Blue wave, blue tsunami, or blue mirage?
It sure looks like a big ol’ blue wave. In that same poll, likely voters prefer Democrats for the House 52% to 44%. History is on their side, too. Since World War II, the president’s party has picked up House seats in a midterm only twice.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is telling crowds the polls are wrong, and that Republicans just won’t pick up the phone for pollsters. He has a little history on his side. In 2024, polls underestimated Republicans’ House margin by about 5 points. And a Trump-aligned strategist told the Financial Times that young voters in Georgia aren’t turning out early the way they did in 2022 and 2024.
Then again, midterm polling has a decent track record, and Democrats slightly beat their polls in 2022.
3. Trump’s $5,000 promise
President Trump has been posting videos online promising every adult citizen $5,000 if Republicans hang on to the House and Senate. We’ve never seen a president do anything like it. Congress hasn’t approved a dime. There’s no bill. It’s a bribe for your vote, and an unfunded one.
Even the bribes are running a deficit now.
RELATED STORIES
4. The supermajority fight in Olympia
Here at home, Republicans aren’t taking the state Legislature. The real question is whether they stay close enough to keep Democrats from a two-thirds supermajority.
Democrats already run Olympia. Two-thirds would take out the last speed bump, letting them send constitutional amendments to voters without a single Republican vote. Voters would still get the final say. Democrats would just be writing the questions.
5. The majority of voters have no love for either party
Nationally, voters are fed up with both major parties.
The Post poll has the Democratic Party at 44% favorable. That beats Republicans at 35%, but it’s still a failing grade.
Two years ago, the Harris-Trump election was a reaction to how badly things were going, especially the economy. Days before that vote, 75% of Americans said the country was on the wrong track. Today it’s 72%. Here we go again, with the shoe on the other foot.
That ballot on your kitchen table isn’t going to fill itself out. If it hasn’t arrived, call your county elections office. You can also track it at VoteWA.gov.
Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here.
