Harger: Sound Transit 3 needs another $34.5 billion. That’s $10,000 per person in the taxing district. And Ballard still isn’t getting light rail

Sound Transit held an all-day retreat last week to figure out how to close a $34.5 billion gap. They say they’re working on bringing costs down. And maybe they’ll shave something off. But here’s where this is almost certainly heading: back to voters, hat in hand, with a scaled-back plan and a bill that works out to roughly $10,000 per person in the taxing district. And if history is any guide, voters will say yes.

So let’s talk about that number.

In 2016, voters in the Puget Sound region approved Sound Transit 3 (ST3), a massive light rail expansion connecting Tacoma to Everett, Seattle to Issaquah, with stops in Ballard and West Seattle. The price tag was $53.8 billion. This is not the first time the numbers haven’t worked. In 2021, Sound Transit acknowledged a $6.5 billion affordability gap and adopted a realignment plan. Last September, the agency announced the shortfall had grown to $30 billion. Six months later, it’s $34.5 billion. The gap grew by $4.5 billion in half a year.

There are roughly 3.4 million people living in the Sound Transit taxing district, formally known as the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA). It covers the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett-Bellevue area. If you live outside that boundary, none of this is coming out of your pocket. If you live inside it, all of it is — men, women, children, babies who have never been on a train in their lives. Divide $34.5 billion by 3.4 million people, and you get just about $10,000 a head. That’s the back-of-the-envelope math. They’ll just keep taking it out of your property taxes, your sales taxes, and your car tabs. Every. Single. Person. In. The. Tax. District. Is. On. The. Hook. For. Ten. Grand.

The Sound Transit board’s three options. None of them delivers what ST3 voters were promised

Last week, the Sound Transit board held an all-day retreat in Tacoma to figure out what to do about the cost overrun. They came up with three options. Keep active construction projects moving and defer the rest. Prioritize regional connectivity and skip some projects already underway. Or scale everything back across the board.

I’ve been covering this agency for years, and I want you to understand what that actually means. These are projects voters were promised. Projects they’ve been paying for through Sound Transit property taxes, sales taxes, and car tabs. And last week, the board was in a conference room in Tacoma deciding which promises to quietly set aside.

Maybe they’ll cancel a station or shave $10 billion off somewhere. And I suppose we’re all supposed to be grateful for that. Oh, you’re only going to make us pay an extra $24.5 billion instead of $34.5 billion? This is your money. $10,000 of it. Per person. The government has already decided how to spend for you.

Ballard light rail, West Seattle light rail, Tacoma light rail: none of them get what was promised

Here’s what the people who voted for ST3 in 2016 were promised. Light rail to 15th and Market Street in Ballard. Light rail to the Alaska Junction in West Seattle. Light rail to the Tacoma Dome. None of those destinations survives under any of the three options the board put on the table last week.

The Ballard extension, under the best scenario, stops at Seattle Center. That’s a mile and a half short of Ballard itself. Under another option, it stops even earlier, at Smith Cove, near the cruise ship terminal. Councilmember Dan Strauss, whose district includes Ballard, called it unacceptable and pointed out that Seattle has rezoned Ballard three times since ST3 was passed, meaning the ridership projections the board is working from are a decade out of date. Worth noting: those projections come from Sound Transit, the same agency that told you ST3 would cost $53.8 billion. Sound Transit says the Ballard extension would eventually serve between 90,000 and 147,000 daily riders, making it the highest-ridership line in the agency’s history. It’s also the most expensive single project in ST3, potentially topping $17 billion. And under every option currently on the table, it stops before it gets there.

Here’s the part that should get the attention of Ballard residents. The city upzoned its neighborhood repeatedly, in part on the promise of light rail. Developers built to that promise. Residents planned around it. Now the agency that collected those promises is telling them the line stops at Seattle Center. Strauss says it’s unacceptable. He’s been on the Sound Transit board the whole time this was unfolding.

West Seattle might get light rail to Delridge, skipping the expensive tunnel to Alaska Junction, the commercial heart of the neighborhood. One option eliminates the West Seattle extension entirely. Tacoma might get a line that stops in Fife, a few miles short of the Tacoma Dome. One option also kills the South Kirkland-to-Issaquah line entirely. Stations at Graham Street and Boeing Access Road in South Seattle could be cut. Two options stop the Tacoma Hilltop streetcar short of Tacoma Community College.

There’s also talk of merging the Denny Way and South Lake Union stations into one.

Sound Transit property taxes, sales taxes, and car tabs: still not enough

Remember $30 tabs? That’s what voters approved multiple times in Washington state. Here’s how that works now. If you own a 2021 Ford F-150 and you live inside the Sound Transit taxing district, you’re paying $615 a year in car tab fees. The same truck in Grant County? $108. You’re paying that difference every single year, on top of your Sound Transit property taxes, on top of your sales taxes, and now we find out it still isn’t enough.

Sound Transit had 29.8 million light rail boardings last year across a district of 3.4 million people. That’s fewer than nine rides per person for the entire year. Fewer than one a month. Most of the people paying for this system aren’t riding it. They’re just paying for it.

They’ll come back to voters. Voters will probably say yes. And $34.5 billion won’t be the last number you hear

My scenario for how this ends? Sound Transit will come back to the voters with a scaled-back plan, a new timeline, and a rebranded version of what you already approved. They’ll say: if you really want Ballard, if you really want Alaska Junction, if you really want the Tacoma Dome instead of Fife, we’re going to need more money. And the voters of the RTA taxing district, who have approved every Sound Transit measure put in front of them, will very likely say yes again.

And if you genuinely believe that $34.5 billion is the last number you’ll ever hear from this agency, I have a light rail station in Fife to sell you.

There will be another shortfall. There will be another all-day retreat in Tacoma. There will be another set of three options that don’t quite deliver what was promised. Sound Transit has never once come in on budget. There is no reason to believe that will change. The question isn’t whether there will be another cost overrun. The question is what number comes after $34.5 billion.

That’s just how this works around here.

Sound Transit fare gates: 39% of riders weren’t paying. And one of their big ideas to fix the shortfall is installing actual gates

If you’ve never ridden light rail, you might be surprised to learn that Sound Transit has been running largely on the honor system. No fare gates. You board the train, you’re supposed to have a ticket, and they trust you. The reason? Fare gates were considered unwelcoming. Exclusionary. Some advocates called them “hostile architecture” — barriers that would deter low-income riders and communities of color. So instead of gates, Sound Transit hired fare ambassadors, whose job was to gently remind people to pay rather than actually enforce anything.

Fare compliance eventually dropped to around 61 percent. Fare revenue dropped by $4 million between 2019 and 2024, even as ridership went up by 5 million passengers.

So here’s one of the bold ideas Sound Transit has come up with to help close that $34.5 billion gap: installing fare gates. Actual gates. That people have to pass through. To pay. Before they ride. I know. Revolutionary. They’re calling it “increasing compliance,” which is a very polished way of saying that, for years, on a multibillion-dollar system, they trusted people to pay voluntarily and were surprised when many of them didn’t.

This isn’t the main reason we’re staring at a $34.5 billion Sound Transit cost overrun. But it’s a window into how this agency has been managed.

These aren’t bad people running this agency. They believe in what they’re building. But believing in something and managing it well are two different things. And the people paying for it, through their Sound Transit property taxes, car tabs, and sales taxes, are entitled to ask whether the bill continues to match the promise.

So far, the answer is no. And the meter is still running.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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