Harger: Sound Transit said it will stay the course. Should taxpayers?

A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

We need to talk about Sound Transit and the bill that keeps growing.

When voters approved Sound Transit 3 line (ST3) in 2016, the price was $53.8 billion for the new light rail stops from Tacoma to Everett, Seattle to Issaquah, with stops in Ballard and West Seattle for good measure.

We’d already approved the Sound Transit 1 and 2 lines in previous years, but this third measure was supposed to complete the vision: a true regional spine connecting all our major cities. King County supported it. Snohomish County barely said yes. Pierce County said no. But collectively, it passed, so here we are.

Sound Transit estimates its current budget isn’t enough

Last month, Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine dropped a bombshell: If we want everything it promised with light rail, Sound Transit needs an additional $20 billion, maybe up to $30 billion, to finish ST3. The conservative-leaning Washington Policy Center claimed it’s more like $35 billion.

And already we’re hearing the predictable response: We can’t stop now; we’ve invested too much. There’s a name for this thinking. It’s called the sunk cost fallacy, and Sound Transit seems to be banking on it.

Here’s what makes this worse: Critics said Sound Transit leadership wasn’t even watching the meter properly. In 2020, a state audit concluded Sound Transit routinely skipped basic planning steps to save money upfront, then ultimately paid millions more in surprise costs later. It didn’t track construction costs in real time as prices climbed. It’s like hiring a contractor who never looks at receipts, then acts surprised when the kitchen remodel costs more than the house. The West Seattle Link nearly doubled. Ballard Link ballooned from $12 billion to more than $20 billion.

We’re now talking about overall estimates of Sound Transit’s 1, 2, and 3 light rails costing $55,000 for each person in our region. A family of four? They’re on the hook for $220,000. That’s four years of college, for two kids.

For what? Sound Transit’s own numbers indicated ST3 shifts only 3% to 5% of trips to transit. After all this spending, about 95% will still drive and sit in traffic. Supporters said we’re building for a denser future, but that’s an expensive gamble.

At what point do we finally say no?

Constantine said they’re committed to delivering what voters approved. But we approved $53.8 billion, not $89 billion. Not whatever it becomes when they discover the next batch of costs they weren’t tracking.

Maybe some still believe it’s worth it for environmental benefits or long-term vision. That’s a debate worth having. But this is about an agency that didn’t watch its own costs, and now is asking taxpayers for billions more after fundamentally failing at project management.

Here’s the thing about the sunk cost fallacy: It gets more powerful the more you’ve already lost. The deeper the hole, the harder it becomes to stop digging. A cynic would say Sound Transit is counting on exactly that psychology.

If we were starting fresh today, would we approve $89 billion to move 5% of trips to transit?

That’s the only question that matters. Because continuing a mistake doesn’t make it less of a mistake. It just makes it a more expensive one.

So next time someone tells you Sound Transit needs just a few billion more, remember: That’s not their money they’re so casual about. It’s yours.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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