Dry February could mean summer water shortage

A new forecast from the federal government suggests the summer water supply in Seattle and across the Western U.S. could be sharply reduced.

The forecast is based on precipitation and streamflow, which was below normal for much of the west in January.

The February streamflow projection is for a decline, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center.

The agency said affected areas include all of Washington, Western Oregon and most of Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada and Colorado. Although Washington is part of the pessimistic water supply forecast, it’s doing better than other parts of the West.

“As I look at Washington, I don’t see much of a concern because the water supply forecasts are near average or above-average for the most part,” said Tom Perkins, with the USDA in Portland.

The latest report from Seattle Public Utilities, dated Feb. 11-19 declares “our overall water supply situation and outlook is good.”

Although there is potential for a water shortage across the West, forecasters acknowledge that the region could recover in February and March. But, if it stays dry, summer water supplies in the west could be in the range of 50-to-70 percent of normal. They warn that consecutive dry years could hurt agriculture production.

The February forecast is the second of six monthly forecasts and compares the current level of water content in snowpack in the 12 western states to historical data. The information is designed to guide farmers, water managers and others about water use.

Hydrologists say they’ll be anxiously monitoring the snowpack for the rest of the season.