Seattle summer could be dress rehearsal for global warming

Can the Pacific Northwest handle the heat of 2070, today?

We will find out this summer, according to University of Washington Professor Cliff Mass.

“By the end of the summer, we will know whether the Pacific Northwest is ready to deal with global warming,” Mass wrote in his blog. “And if not, what we need to do to prepare.”

Mass dubbed this summer as a “climate stress test,” because our winter and spring conditions are “stunningly” close to those expected by the end of the century. The winter was much warmer than usual, resulting in incredibly low snowpack; the Cascades had about 20 percent of normal snowpack. Temperatures were 2 to 6 degrees warmer than normal, Mass reports.

Over the past year, the Pacific Northwest was 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal.

The trend will continue this summer, according to Mass. NOAA forecasts temperatures could be 2 to 4 degrees above normal between June and August.

Water shortages are the biggest concern.

The city of Seattle should have enough water to get through the summer. Seattle Public Utility brought the levels of the water reservoirs up during winter rains, making up for less snowpack, Mass reports.

Areas such as the Yakima Basin, however, might be in worse shape. There is typically insufficient storage to get through an entire summer without snow melt. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reported water storage was at nearly 100 percent about a week ago.

Questions remain about wildfires as well. Though warm weather fuels fires, there may not be enough lightning storms to start them, Mass reports.

“In short, we will soon learn whether our region, taking some aggressive steps to deal with the unusual snowpack and temperatures, is ready to take on the climate of 2070,” Mass wrote. “Scary perhaps, but a fascinating experiment.”

If there are problems this summer, it will give experts an idea of what needs to be adjusted or fixed before 2070, Mass reports.