‘A lot of votes may not count’: Supreme Court appears ready to upend WA mail-in ballot rules for federal races by November 2026

Washington voters may be facing one of the biggest changes to how elections work here in decades, and a former state attorney general is saying it plainly: a lot of votes in federal races may not count this November.

Former Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna told “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio that, based on recent Supreme Court arguments, the direction seems clear.

“This could result in a lot of votes in the federal races not being counted,” McKenna said.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on March 16 in a case out of Mississippi that could require all ballots containing federal races to be physically received by Election Day, not just postmarked by it.

“A majority of the court appeared to be sympathetic to the challengers,” McKenna said. “They may overturn Mississippi’s law, which would mean that mail-in ballots for federal elections have to be received by Election Day to be valid.”

If the court rules the way the arguments suggested, the change will take effect this November. Not in two years. This November. Washington voters casting ballots in congressional races would need to physically have their ballots in hand at an elections office or drop box by Election Day. Postmarked by Election Day but not arriving at the election office until a couple of days later would no longer be enough.

In two years, with a presidential race on the ballot, the stakes get even higher.

McKenna said Secretary of State Steve Hobbs and state election officials need to get ahead of this immediately. The next congressional election is roughly seven months away.

“I think they’d better be preparing a public communications program to let voters know that if their ballot has federal races on it, they’d better get it in by Election Day,” McKenna said.

His practical advice to voters: if your ballot isn’t in the mail at least a few days before Election Day, take it to a drop box yourself. Don’t trust the postal timeline.

WA mail-in voting 2026: a huge departure from current rules

Washington is one of the most vote-by-mail-friendly states in the country. Ballots postmarked by Election Day are currently accepted if received days or even weeks afterward. That would end for any race involving a federal office.

The case before the Supreme Court centers on a federal statute that has been on the books since 1845, which established Election Day for federal offices as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in every even-numbered year. The question is whether states can accept ballots after that date. Based on Monday’s arguments, a majority of the court appears to believe they cannot.

What happens to the rest of your WA ballot if your federal votes don’t count

Here’s where it gets complicated for Washington voters. Most ballots contain a mix of federal races, state races, local offices, and ballot measures, all on the same piece of paper. If a ballot arrives after Election Day, McKenna said the likely outcome is that only the federal portion gets thrown out.

“Your votes in the non-federal races, including on statewide ballot measures, local offices, and state legislative races, those would be counted,” McKenna said. “But your votes in the races for Congress or Senate races, those would not.”

So, in a year when Washington could see a ballot measure on the millionaire income tax alongside congressional races, a ballot that arrives a day late could still count for the tax measure while the congressional votes go uncounted. Counties would essentially have to sort ballots and selectively count portions of them. McKenna acknowledged that it gets complicated fast.

SAVE Act 2026: proof of citizenship and a hard ballot deadline

The Supreme Court case is about interpreting existing federal law. The SAVE Act, currently pending in Congress, goes further in two significant ways. It would require proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, and it would explicitly mandate that all federal ballots be physically received by Election Day as a matter of national law.

That combination, stricter registration requirements, and a hard receipt deadline, represents a substantial shift in how federal elections would work across the country. McKenna noted that Congress has the power to go the other direction and explicitly allow ballots received after Election Day to count, as long as they are postmarked in time. But that is not the direction Congress is currently moving.

Military and overseas voters could be hit hardest by the Supreme Court’s mail-in ballot ruling

One group McKenna flagged as particularly vulnerable: military voters and Americans living overseas. The federal government has long encouraged and protected overseas and military voting. A hard Election Day receipt deadline would make participation in federal races extremely difficult for service members deployed abroad.

“They obviously can’t drive down to the corner and drop off their ballot,” McKenna said.

WA 2026 congressional election: will your ballot count?

The Supreme Court typically issues its major decisions in late June or early July. If the ruling goes the way the arguments suggested, Washington state would have weeks, not months, to overhaul its voter messaging before fall campaigning begins.

McKenna was careful not to overstate it.

“I think the republic will survive this as well,” he said.

But he was direct about the practical impact: Many Washington voters who have spent years assuming that dropping a ballot in the mail on Election Day is good enough will need to change their habits, and they need to be told that clearly and soon.

The congressional races this November are the first test. The 2028 presidential race is when every voter in the country would feel the full weight of the change.

McKenna’s advice is straightforward: don’t wait to find out the hard way.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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