Cliff Mass calls for overhaul in US weather prediction: ‘We should be better’
Dec 6, 2024, 6:29 AM | Updated: 6:52 am
A National Weather Service (NWS) radar showed a front moving through Western Washington early in 2024. (Image courtesy of NWS)
(Image courtesy of NWS)
In a recent blog post titled “Make American Weather Prediction Great Again,” Cliff Mass, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington, argues the U.S. is lagging behind other countries in weather prediction due to outdated technology and bureaucratic inefficiencies. Mass, a prominent voice in meteorology, believes that a significant overhaul is necessary to reclaim America’s leadership in this critical field.
Mass says accurate weather forecasts are crucial, highlighting their economic and safety implications. “The economic implications of poor forecasting are immense,” he said. “Not only for the economy but also for saving lives and property. Improved forecasts really pay for themselves. So much of the American economy is weather-related or weather-sensitive that even a small increment in forecast skill has big payoffs for the American people.”
“Right now, we’re fourth in the world in terms of global prediction, which is really unfortunate,” Mass said in an interview on “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. “We started the technology of numerical weather prediction. We were the best in the world, but we’ve let that advantage slide.”
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Mass contends that the issue is not a lack of funding but rather how resources are organized.
“It’s the fact we have this bureaucracy that’s extremely ineffective, and we’re not using the vast research capacity of the United States,” he explained.
According to Mass, the current system splits American resources into five or six different groups, each operating suboptimally.
Critics might argue that Mass’s focus on organizational issues overlooks the potential benefits of maintaining multiple independent agencies, which they believe can foster innovation through competition. However, Mass remains steadfast in his belief that a centralized approach is the solution.
“What we need to do is create one entity in the United States that does numerical weather prediction, bring together all the resources there, and probably have it outside of NOAA or other agencies,” he said. “Have an independent group that brings everything together to create the best forecasting system in the world that all the agencies can share. Instead of NASA doing it, the Navy doing it, the Air Force doing it, NOAA doing it, and them doing it separately and in an inferior way, have one American effort that is the world’s best,” he said.
Despite the progress made in weather technology over the past few decades, Mass believes there is still much room for improvement. He points to the predictions of the “Bomb Cyclone” windstorm that hammered Western Washington last month. “The short-term forecasts were actually quite good,” he acknowledged. “So I’m not saying weather technology hasn’t gotten better. It has gotten better. It’s immensely better than what it was, let’s say, 30-40 years ago. We’ve made progress, but we could be much, much better than we are today.”
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One of the most exciting advances in meteorology, according to Mass, is the application of machine learning and AI for weather prediction. “Machine learning, trained properly, can make extremely good forecasts,” he said. “Several groups have done this—from Amazon to the European Center. It’s very, very good, at least in getting global forecasts better. The European Center is already doing this. The U.S. weather prediction effort in NOAA and the National Weather Service has no operational capabilities in this area.”
Mass envisions a future where weather forecasts are significantly improved, particularly in the second week. “Now forecasts are pretty good a day or two out, but the big improvements would be days seven to 10,” he said. “That’s where you see the biggest improvements and even some improvements at 14 days and more. You’d see a real vast improvement week to two weeks out.”
Charlie Harger currently is the news director for MyNorthwest and KIRO Newsradio. He will become the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” in 2025. You can read more of Charlie’s stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here.
