Harger: 5 things about WA’s midterms, for people who blissfully ignored politics all summer

Five things edition. I’ll take this opportunity every so often to tell you a few things I’m observing in the state political landscape. These are very zoomed-out observations, not deep dives.

So let’s start here. It’s the day after Labor Day, and political prognosticators will tell you this is around the time that normal people start paying a bit more attention to the upcoming elections.

I’m talking people who don’t watch Fox News. People who aren’t glued to MSNow. People who don’t know MSNBC changed its name to MSNow. People not terminally connected to social media.

If you’re one of those normal people, first, welcome. (My name is Charlie. I host a show on KIRO Newsradio called “Seattle’s Morning News.” Manda Factor is my co-host. She’s very nice and mostly normal.)

Let me bring you up to speed on a few things, as we’re exactly eight weeks away from the midterm elections.

Donald Trump is not on the ballot

First, President Trump is not on the ballot. He’s been on the national ballot three times now, and he’s a bit polarizing. Meaning, people who normally wouldn’t vote felt compelled to vote in the presidential race, either because they love the guy or they can’t stand him. So it stands to reason there won’t be as big of a turnout this year. Again, Donald Trump is not on the ballot.

Donald Trump is on the ballot

Second, Donald Trump is on the ballot. OK, his name isn’t printed there. But he faces low approval numbers in national polls, and he is deeply, deeply unpopular in Washington state. Any candidate with an “R” next to their name is going to be asked whether they align with the president. What do you think of the war with Iran? What do you think of the president’s economic policies? What do you think of the president’s Medicaid cuts? And those are just the questions going to the guy running for PUD Commissioner.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez v. John Braun in WA-03

Third, that brings us to southwest Washington, where Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces a strong challenge in her congressional race from Republican state Senator John Braun. She won the race by about four points in 2024. Republicans have been very hopeful to pick up this seat as they try to keep control of the House. A ton of money will be spent on this race.

Keep an eye on whether the president’s deepening unpopularity keeps some voters from even casting their ballots, a vote that in other years might have gone to Braun.

Initiative 645’s ballot language is doing the Democrats’ work for them

Fourth, speaking of money, now to the income tax repeal initiative. I’ve been voicing my skepticism for months now that Initiative 645 can pass, and that skepticism is deepening. A few reasons, but I think the big one is the campaign messaging that will appear on every ballot.

It will say: “This measure would decrease funding for public K-12 education, higher education (including universities and community colleges), and human services (primarily healthcare).”

Never mind that the programs to be cut haven’t even started yet, or that we’re talking about future money from the new income tax. Casual voters are going to see that and think long and hard about cutting education and healthcare.

Anecdotally, I walked by the booth for state Democrats at the Puyallup Fair this weekend, and they had a big sign with the wording for the ballot front and center. They know it’s a winning message.

Democratic supermajorities in Olympia would open the constitution

Fifth: supermajorities in the state House and Senate. The Democrats already have strong majorities in both chambers. You might not hear them say it out loud, but watch for a push to pick up seven House seats and three Senate seats.

If they get two-thirds of the Legislature, it means smooth sailing for introducing state constitutional amendments. That could include perhaps enshrining an income tax in the constitution, not just in law. Any amendment would still go to voters for final approval, but the hard part, getting it out of Olympia, would be done.

The caveats, because eight weeks is a long time

A lot can change in eight weeks. An unforeseen crisis could upend everything. The 9/11 attacks taught us that. Maybe there’s bad polling data out there, and Washington voters are secretly more moderate than the numbers show. And don’t forget, the president has vowed to take some sort of action on the voting process in some states, and that includes Washington. Any of those could have an impact.

OK, normal people. That’s just a bit of what’s going on. If you’re coming into this after many blissful months of not paying attention to politics, your bliss is hereby canceled. We missed you.

Now you have eight weeks to figure out what you think.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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