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The most comprehensive study of earthquake history off the Pacific Northwest coast has found a new threat of a major, destructive earthquake on the scale of the 2011 Japan quake and tsunami. Here students participate in a statewide earthquake drill in a Seattle school. (AP)

New quake threat off the Pacific Northwest coast

BY Tim Haeck  on August 2, 2012 @ 6:54 am (Updated: 5:19 pm - 8/2/12 )

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The most comprehensive study of earthquake history off the Pacific Northwest coast has found a new threat of a major, destructive earthquake on the scale of the 2011 Japan quake and tsunami.

Scientists at Oregon State University have been studying the Cascadia Subduction Zone, analyzing clues beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean such as the the movement of mud, sand, sediment and fine particles, trying to go back 10,000 years. That history shows 19 huge earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, typically 8.7 to 9.2 on the Richter scale.

Chris Goldfinger, a professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean and Atospheric Sciencies, believes there is a 40 percent chance of a major, Japan-sized earthquake in the next 50 years, but more likely in the southern end of the subduction zone, meaning Oregon.

"Major earthquakes tend to strike more frequently along the southern end - every 240 years or so - and it has been longer than that since it last happened," writes Goldfinger.

Art Frankel, with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington has reviewed the new findings, based on 13 years of research. He calls it important but not wholly accepted and still being "digested by the scientific community."

The research concludes, in part, that the southern part of that Cascadia Subduction Zone has a higher recurrence of major quakes and thus a higher risk.

"The clock is ticking on when a major earthquake will strike the zone," wrote a co-author of the study. If there is no big quake by 2060, we'll have exceeded 85 percent of all known intervals of earthquake recurrence in the last 10,000 years, he concluded.

"It's not clear whether our record is complete in the north. There may be additional earthquakes in the northern part of the zone that we just haven't really detected," suggested Frankel.

Frankel said there might be more than one explanation for what researchers found beneath the sea.

"We're looking back in time with a very cloudy lens and each type of observation, either offshore or onshore has its limitations and sometimes has multiple interpretations," he argued.

Goldfinger, the lead author of report, says the southern end of the earthquake zone "is overdue for a rupture." And, he says, the risk of a major quake in the southern end is double that of the northern end. That doesn't mean that the Seattle area can relax.

"That would be a serious mistake. [The report] basically says that maybe the hazard in the southern part is higher than we thought it was but it's still high in the north. The hazard is still high along the whole Cascadia Subduction Zone," said Frankel.

Frankel and others at the USGS are in the process of updating our earthquake hazard maps, which is done every six years. He says the new findings will change the calculations.

Tim Haeck, KIRO Radio Reporter
Tim Haeck is a news reporter with KIRO Radio. While Tim is one of our go-to, no-nonsense reporters, he also has a sensationally dry sense of humor and it will surprise some to learn he is a weekend warrior.
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Comments (19)


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  • 333 wrote...
    is it just me?
    August 2, 2012 7:02 am
    It just feels like a big ones coming..
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • anotherfencewalker wrote...
    It wouldnt matter..
    August 2, 2012 7:08 am
    We may have an 8 plus quake that will flatten old buildings all around Puget Sound and kill people but these "study" groups will still insist that "that wasnt the big one"..
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rick W7PSK wrote...
    Another
    August 2, 2012 7:53 am
    exactly. Reads more like someone wants more grant money from the government.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • kurtthekraut wrote...
    Never Fails,....
    August 2, 2012 9:07 am
    Every few years some report comes through to " Rattle the Cattle ". Of course we will eventually experience an earthquake in the region. Is this some sort of news flash? Whether its large earthquakes or Africanized Killer Bees, Bird Flu,..H1N1 etc,...the media always comes up with something to rattle our cage. This is nothing but " stating the obvious ".
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Gate Keeper wrote...
    HoHum
    August 2, 2012 9:14 am
    No news here, no reality here,no need to worry here. this is how the these pointy headed academics who wouldn't last five minutes in the private sector scam for career long gummint grant money. It's called "the chicken little" ploy and it works every time and especially for the prognosticators of (non-provable) impending disaster. Time to kick most of these worthless "trough feeders" out of the publicly supported barnyard. For a helluva lot less $$$ you can hire a Gypsy fortune teller and get the same accuracy.
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  • Ted Bundi wrote...
    And at some point in time
    August 2, 2012 10:02 am
    Perhaps in the next 20 thousand years, Mt. Rainier will erupt again. Please renew my grant. Man, this is information we already know.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • roomtemp wrote...
    There's an interesting looking swarm of quakes...
    August 2, 2012 10:30 am
    Off the coast of southern Oregon just this week. A quick glance at google maps will tell you that the plates in the PNW are under quite a bit of stress. I suspect all the little quakes we have actually help relieve that stress. The time to worry would be if we don't get any for a while.

    I have to disagree with some of the other posters. Seismic studies are good activities for our pointy headed academics to occupy themselves with. The more we learn the more accurate their predictions can become. One day, we will get a big one.

    Of course there's not much we can do about it except having your 'bug out bag' and a supply of food and fresh water handy. Preferably, near an exit.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • HLC wrote...
    One day we will get a big one.
    August 2, 2012 11:35 am
    We will know about it the instant it hits. Not a week before or 1 hour before. They can't hit the weather forecast very often and they can see it coming. It's all about the grant money just like global warming. If the government wanted to study global cooling it would be the same goof balls looking for the grant money. If we would stop with climate grants we would be a much richer country.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • roomtemp wrote...
    "We will know about it the instant it hits."
    August 2, 2012 11:58 am
    As I recall, they were able to give us some advance warning before Mt. St. Helens blew up. Then there's the tsunami warning aspect as well. Same seismic network at work.

    I don't put seismology or earthquake prediction in the same category as predicting climate 100 years into the future. Not all science grants are bad.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Cougsfan34 wrote...
    *yawn*
    August 2, 2012 11:36 am
    Why is it that the media and Seattle has such a raging hard on for a big earthquake. Stating that we are going to have another earthquake is like saying the sun will rise. *rolling eyes*
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Skykomish2 wrote...
    Quake info
    August 2, 2012 2:00 pm
    I, for one, like to read this stuff. Everyone is so critical of everyone these days. Just take it for what it is - a study that MAY give some level of warning time in the future. Beats reading more crap about the Kardashians...
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Citizen of Krazy Town wrote...
    I'm wearing my "I survived" SEATTLE EARTHQUAKE @ 2001 "the shirt" shirt
    August 2, 2012 2:24 pm
    In honor of this article.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
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