Harger: Gov. Bob Ferguson is a two-time state chess champion. Washington politics is his board now

Governor Bob Ferguson is smart. You don’t make the move from the King County Council to the Attorney General’s Office to the Governor’s Mansion without being smart, savvy, and strategic.

And he didn’t get onto the King County Council the easy way. In 2003, he took on Cynthia Sullivan, a Democrat who’d held the seat for 20 years and chaired the council. Ferguson knocked on about 22,000 doors and beat her in the primary, stunning the party leaders who’d stood behind her.

The Democratic establishment didn’t exactly roll out the welcome mat. Two years later, redistricting put him up against another Democratic incumbent, one backed by the King County executive and the mayor of Seattle. He beat her, too.

That’s what a lot of his detractors get wrong about the guy. They disagree with his policies, so they assume he must be a puppet of some big, bad state party. The party didn’t make Bob Ferguson. He beat it.

Think what you will of his decisions. But the man is smart, and he has a plan.

Bob Ferguson, Washington state chess champion, 1984 and 1987

Ferguson is a two-time state chess champion. Don’t believe me? Go to the Washington Chess Federation’s state champions page. Bobby Ferguson. Bellevue, 1984. Seattle Chess Club, 1987. He even spent a year playing in Europe to get better at the game.

And what’s chess all about? Thinking about the next move, sure. But really, it’s about having a strategy for the moves after that.

Earlier this month, Ferguson wrote on X: “Playing professional chess is not the usual path to becoming Governor – but it taught me many life lessons including learning from your losses, how to take calculated risks, and the importance of always having a plan.”

So look at how the board is set up right now.

Initiative 645’s ballot statement swings the income tax vote 18 points

In 2022, while Ferguson was attorney general, Democratic lawmakers passed the Public Investment Impact Disclosure Law (PIID). When an initiative would cut taxes or revenue, a short statement now appears on the ballot telling you what would lose funding if it passes. The attorney general’s office writes it.

For Initiative 645, the income tax repeal on this November’s ballot, that PIID statement reads: the measure “would decrease funding for public K-12 education, higher education (including universities and community colleges), and human services (primarily healthcare).”

That’s a tough pill to swallow.

Never mind that the state hasn’t collected a dime from this tax yet. No classroom or clinic is losing money it has today. The statement is about future revenue for programs that haven’t started.

But the average voter isn’t reading the fiscal note. They see “education” and “healthcare” next to the word “decrease,” and they recoil.

Which is exactly how the law’s supporters hoped it would work.

Depending on your politics, it’s either transparency or a thumb on the scale. The Northwest Progressive Institute, a progressive group that pushed for the law, calls it transparency. The Washington State Republican Party calls it a weapon. Courts have upheld it so far.

Either way, it works. A new DHM Research poll of 800 Washington residents split the sample in half. Half saw the ballot language with that statement. Half saw it without.

With the statement, 57% would keep the income tax and 35% would repeal it — a 22-point gap.

Without it, 44% would keep it and 40% would repeal it. Four points.

One sentence. Eighteen points.

Ferguson’s Washington Supreme Court appointees run as incumbents

Ferguson has also appointed two state Supreme Court justices, Colleen Melody and Theo Angelis, and both get to run as incumbents this November. That’s a huge advantage.

It matters beyond the bench, too. The state Supreme Court is expected to decide whether the income tax is constitutional.

Why 2026 could be a Democratic wave year in Washington

Then there’s the political weather. Ferguson won the governor’s race in 2024 by more than 10 points, in the same year Donald Trump made his comeback nationally. Trump lost Washington by about 18 points that year, and it’s been downhill for the president here since. Ferguson surely saw that coming, too.

So this is shaping up to be a great year for him and his party. I-645 looks like it’s in trouble. The Supreme Court candidates who align with Democrats are likely to ride that wave. And if the income tax survives both the ballot and the court, there you have it, a new, permanent revenue source for the state.

And consider the stretch goal, because Bob Ferguson certainly is.

Sixty-six of 98 seats in the House. Thirty-three of 49 in the Senate.

That’s a two-thirds majority, and it’s the threshold to send constitutional amendments to a vote of the people. Maybe on taxes. Maybe on a whole host of issues someone smarter than me is already thinking about.

Voters would still get the final say. But whoever holds two-thirds decides which questions end up on the ballot.

That could change the structure of Washington politics and government for a generation. In chess, that’s the move you set up 10 turns early. No doubt it’s one of the many possibilities on Ferguson’s board.

Don’t like Bob Ferguson? Fine. Don’t like his politics? OK.

But if you’re discounting him because you think he hasn’t thought this through, that’s how you wind up in checkmate.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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