Local port commissioners warn of rising costs and supply chain disruptions as a result of trade war with China

The ports of Seattle and Tacoma are grappling with a significant slowdown in container traffic, as trade tensions between the United States and China continue to disrupt global supply chains. Port officials warn that the situation could worsen, potentially leading to empty store shelves and economic strain on small and medium-sized businesses.

Ryan Calkins, Port of Seattle Commissioner, described the visible decline in vessel activity at major terminals. “We’re starting to see a real reduction in vessel calls and even the amount of time they spend there,” Calkins said.

He attributed the slowdown to the uncertainty caused by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have strained trade relations with China, the region’s largest trading partner.

It’s not just about imports

The impact extends beyond imports.

“China is the largest consumer of soybeans coming out of the Midwest,” Calkins said. “Boeing sells a lot of airplanes to China. All of that has locked up, it’s not moving either way. And so, unless we get a resolution quickly, things are going to get a lot worse.”

In Tacoma, the situation mirrors Seattle’s challenges.

Dick Marzano, Port of Tacoma Commissioner, highlighted the toll on agricultural exports, particularly apples and cherries, which have struggled to regain market share after previous tariff hikes.

“It takes years to grow a partnership with these companies overseas,” Marzano said. “So even if tomorrow they come to some kind of an agreement, you’re gonna still see some tariffs that were imposed a little bit higher. And it’s gonna be hard getting back some of that cargo.”

Both ports are working to mitigate the impact by diversifying trade partnerships. Commissioners from Seattle and Tacoma are currently in Asia, exploring opportunities in Vietnam and Korea, where tariffs are less restrictive. “We’re looking at all avenues,” Marzano said. “We’re still open for business, we’re not shutting anything down, we’re going to do whatever we can to make things go.”

Supply chain disruptions probably coming soon

The slowdown has raised concerns about potential shortages of goods, reminiscent of the pandemic-era supply chain disruptions. Calkins warned, “For certain commodities, it’s probably weeks, not months,” before we see shortages.

“During the pandemic, the issue was it was actually a surge of goods that kind of locked up the whole system. We had so many things coming inbound, that it was hard to process everything coming through,” Calkins said.

Now, we have the opposite problem.

“So many fewer things are moving either from a factory to the water, across the water that by the time we do get resolution, it’s going to take a while to refill that pipeline,” he said.
Calkins said families may face challenges due to the trade war. He said affordable clothing brands could become less affordable as the trade war goes on, as most of those products come from China.

And Marzano said big-ticket items will also become more expensive.

“You look at people that maybe bought just recently because they knew the price is going to go up, you’re going to see the washer, the dryers, the refrigerators, automobiles, things of that nature not being in such great demand because of the sticker shock,” he said.

How close is the U.S. to a deal with China?

Recently, the Trump administration has said talks are ongoing with China and that a deal is being worked on. But China has said no talks are happening.

Calkins suggested internal disagreements within the Trump administration may be delaying resolution. He believes there are trade hawks in the administration who want to see high tariffs because they believe it will bring manufacturing back to the United States.

“And then you’ve got other parts of the administration who are saying, ‘Listen, this is going to bring economic cataclysm to the United States, and we have effectively shot ourselves in the foot here and we need to walk this back as quickly as possible,’” he said. “At this point, you know, the Chinese are just sitting back and, you know, got their bucket of popcorn and watching it all happen back in DC,” Calkins said.

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