Groundhog Day: Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow?

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Groundhog Day Sunday and predicted six more weeks of wintry weather, his top-hatted handlers announced to a raucous, record-sized crowd at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania.

Phil was welcomed with chants of “Phil, Phil, Phil,” and pulled from a hatch on his tree stump shortly after sunrise before a member of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club read from a scroll in which he boasted: “Only I know — you can’t trust A.I.”

When Phil is deemed to have not seen his shadow, that is said to usher in an early spring. When he does see it, there will be six more weeks of winter.

The crowd was treated to a fireworks show, confetti and live music that ranged from the Ramones to “Pennsylvania Polka” as they awaited sunrise and Phil’s emergence. Gov. Josh Shapiro, local and state elected officials and a pair of pageant winners were among the dignitaries at the scene.

Phil has predicted a longer winter far more often than an early spring, and one effort to track his accuracy concluded he was right less than half the time. What six more weeks of winter means is subjective.

MyNorthwest Weather: Heavy snow in the mountains, some reaches the lowlands

A bit on the history of Groundhog Day

There is a long 138-year history behind this folklore and the annual ceremony in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

The story begins with a diary entry by storekeeper James Morris of Morgantown, Pennsylvania, on Feb. 4, 1841.

At the time, he stated: “Last Tuesday the 2nd was Candlemas Day, the day of which according to the Germans the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow, he pops back for another 6 weeks nap, but if the day is cloudy, he remains out as the weather is to be moderate.”

What Morris wrote offered some weather observations and meteorology. Winter surface high pressure in the eastern U.S. often results in sunny skies and cold temperatures. So if the Groundhog finds sunshine on Feb. 2, winter is still likely in progress. If it is cloudy, then a more moderate weather pattern is already underway.

Since 1887, Groundhog Day has been celebrated on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney each year on Feb 2. This year’s celebration again attracted thousands of visitors to witness Punxsutawney Phil come out of his burrow and make his folklore weather prediction. According to Groundhog.org, this year’s festivities in Punxsutawney were sold out. For those who want to see what took place at the ceremony, you can watch Phil make his legendary prediction online at the Visit Pennsylvania website.

Does the Groundhog Day forecast apply to the Puget Sound region?

Does Punxsutawney Phil’s weather forecast apply to Western Washington? In reality, no, since the weather and climate in the Keystone State is so much different than this region. Yet, it is still fun to learn what Phil sees when he pops out of his burrow.

If Punxsutawney Phil resided in the Puget Sound region, he also would not see his shadow. Though it will be quite chilly. A much colder unsettled air mass with showers will be over Western Washington with high temperatures struggling to reach even 40 degrees.

Snow levels will be quite low and spotty light accumulations are possible. The best chance for accumulating snow will be Snohomish County northward to the Canadian border, along the northeast Olympic Peninsula, and the north coast.

In the mountains, this weather pattern will offer an opportunity to help catch up on the snowpack deficit with one to two feet of new snow anticipated.

Low temperatures in Western Washington are expected to dip into the 20s in many areas. Any wet roadways will ice up during the nighttime freezing temperatures.

The cold snap is expected to extend well into next week as well though the threat of lowland snow will taper off later in the week.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. You can read more of Ted’s stories here and follow him on X.