Sistek: NOAA denies Hurricane Hunter flight for WA storm as La Niña boosts Seattle snow chances

Hurricane Hunter planes were busy last week as they tried to fly into the center of Hurricane Melissa as it tore through Jamaica.

Fresh off that mission, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) requested flights from those planes into the atmospheric river currently soaking western Washington, but the request has been denied.

The agency said it was due to “unavailable resources.”

Long-time Seattle weather blogger Scott Sistek shared the update on his new site, Emerald City Weather (emeraldcityweather.com), and in a conversation with “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio.

Sistek said the agency left the door open for using these planes later in the season when the Pacific Northwest needs extra eyes over the ocean.

Why Hurricane Hunters matter for West Coast storms

If Hurricane Hunters over the Pacific sounds surprising, Sistek is quick to reassure.

“Yes! But it’s not unusual, nor does it signal a particularly dire storm,” he wrote.

With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down, the Air Force Reserve’s WC-130J Super Hercules aircraft and NOAA research crews often pivot to our coast.

As Sistek put it, “It’s the West Coast’s turn to take advantage of the hearty aircraft and storm expertises of the research teams and their pilots to go ‘hunting’ some of the West Coast’s most powerful storms.”

Why meteorologists track atmospheric rivers

So why bring Hurricane Hunters into atmospheric rivers at all? Because these systems are often among Washington’s biggest storms.

“Atmospheric Rivers can be some of the more impactful storms to strike the West Coast during the autumn and winter,” Sistek explained, capable of “several inches of rain” and the kind of river flooding, flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides that people from Seattle and Tacoma to Everett and across Washington state know too well.

And while there is no eye wall drama like in a hurricane, the flights are far from simple.

“Atmospheric river storms still carry strong winds and torrential rains fueled by a stream of tropical moisture and an intense jet stream that makes for anything but a smooth flight,” he said.

The term “atmospheric river” is getting overused

Sistek also cautioned that the term “atmospheric river” is getting a lot of airtime.

“We’ve got one today. We’ve got another one coming in tomorrow (Thursday) and into Friday. I know that term is getting bandied around quite a bit lately. I mean, it’s sort of like the new shiny toy,” he told “Seattle’s Morning News.” “Atmospheric rivers have been around forever, and even the research has been around for decades. But just kind of like in the last, I don’t know, 5, 10 years, we in the media have kind of clamped onto that and been like, oh, this is a nice, fun phrase to say, and it’s kind of impactful. It’s true, it’s a good description of what’s going on. It is literally like a river of moisture in the atmosphere.”

Not every Pacific storm is an atmospheric river

He added that not every storm here is an atmospheric river.

Some forecasts are “probably starting to overuse it (the term) a little bit,” he said.

He worries audiences might assume every storm is one.

“Well, not every storm’s an atmospheric river,” Sistek said. “Most of the ones that we have had so far this season have been atmospheric rivers, so we (forecasters) haven’t been cheating. They’re real. But some are pretty weak, some are much stronger.”

This week’s forecast: steady rain, not major impacts

The near-term forecast is more about steady rain than major impacts for the Puget Sound. Sistek noted that this week’s storm aims its heaviest moisture into Southern Oregon and Northern California.

“The folks that rate AR’s (atmospheric rivers) are giving it a Level 4 out of 5 potential for northern California and southern Oregon, but ‘only’ a level 2 up in Washington. That’s beneficial rain for us,” he explained.

Sistek said it will be rainy and windy the next couple of days in Seattle, but “doesn’t at this point appear to be an impactful storm for us.”

La Niña outlook: signs point to Seattle snow this winter

The bigger story for Seattle weather is the upcoming winter season. Sistek said the Hurricane Hunters are available in the Pacific on a “resources permitting status” through December, then “usually fully assigned to the Pacific in January and February.”

Sistek said signs are pointing in a good direction for snow lovers in Washington.

“We’re looking at an above-average snowpack” for the mountains, he told “Seattle’s Morning News.” “For December through February, that’s a good sign. A La Niña winter doesn’t always mean heavy snow, but more often than not, it’s a pretty good snow season.”

Better chance for lowland snow around Puget Sound

That could mean wintry weather in Seattle, too.

“For those of us in the lowlands, I’m a snow fan, so I’ll say it. There’s a better chance for lowland snow events at times. Cross your fingers,” Sistek said.

He joked that if you’re at Target or Walmart and see sleds on the shelf, it might be smart to grab one now.

“We did that one year, bought snow shovels early in November, and sure enough, we used them that winter,” he said.

La Niña benefits Western Washington beyond the ski slopes

Sistek said La Niña winters usually deliver more than just pretty views. They’re vital for mountain snowpack and summer water supply.

“We rely on that mountain snow,” he said. “Those winters tend to give us at least average, if not above-average, snowpack. That’s good for water, for skiers, for snowboarders. It’s good all around. Not so good for walking the dog since it usually means more rainy days. But overall, La Niña is what I root for.”

No lowland snow is in the forecast yet, but Sistek said ski areas have seen a few flakes.

“We’re on a good path for a strong ski season once it starts,” he said.

Sistek returns to his Seattle weather roots

After decades of blogging about Seattle weather and a recent stretch covering the national forecast, Sistek is back home with his new site, EmeraldCityWeather.com.

“I wanted to get back to my Seattle roots,” he said. “Most people outside the Northwest don’t really care about Seattle weather. I’d try to talk about a big storm here (in Seattle), and they’d ask, ‘What’s happening in New England?’ The East Coast bias is real.”

New site focuses on Pacific Northwest weather and science

With his new platform, Sistek said he can focus on what makes the Pacific Northwest unique.

“I’ve always loved writing about Seattle weather, the quirks, the science, the stories behind the forecast,” he said. “Things like Hurricane Hunters, La Niña, or the chance for severe weather in Oregon. That’s what I’m passionate about. Now I can write about it all again on my own terms.”

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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