Damaging Christmas Eve windstorm possible for western WA, but forecasters say uncertainty remains high

Western Washington may be in for a strong windstorm on Christmas Eve, but forecasters say they need a few more hours before they know for sure.

Multiple meteorologists are raising concerns Monday morning about a potential storm on Wednesday, Dec. 24. The problem: forecast models are not yet in agreement about how strong it will be or exactly when it will hit.

“Wednesday, that’s the day that could potentially be strong,” Nick Allard, a KIRO 7 TV meteorologist, said on “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio Monday. “I’m keeping an eye on what the computer models are hinting at. Could be very windy weather from about late morning or midday till late afternoon.”

But Allard urged caution about drawing conclusions too early.

“None of them really agree right now,” he said. “There is not a ton of agreement on what’s going to happen, but it has the potential to be very strong. South winds could increase for a few-hour period where you could see at least 50 miles an hour or higher.”

Allard said he has not declared an alert day yet.

“I haven’t called an alert or anything yet because I want to see if the models will come into some kind of agreement this morning, and I’m hoping they will here in a few hours,” he said. “Wednesday is for sure the day we have to keep an eye on.”

Forecast caught meteorologists off guard

The potential Christmas Eve windstorm appeared suddenly in forecast models over the weekend.

“This popped up when I was looking at charts yesterday,” said Ted Buehner, KIRO Newsradio meteorologist and retired National Weather Service forecaster. “I didn’t see any strong inkling of this at all. So the newest run right now is indicating this new development, and it definitely bears watching.”

Other meteorologists across the region are also watching closely. Michael Snyder, posting on X as @SeattleWXGuy, called it a “potent, high-impact storm” that could affect areas from California to Washington on December 23-24.

Jonathan Pulley, a weather forecaster and photographer, said models have “trended this evening towards an increasing potential for a significant region-wide storm on the 23rd and Christmas Eve.”

“Lots of details need to be ironed out, but everyone from California to Washington and southwest British Columbia needs to watch this closely,” Pulley wrote.

Saturated soils raise power outage concerns

If the storm does materialize, the region’s waterlogged ground could make impacts worse. After two weeks of atmospheric rivers and record flooding, soils remain saturated, and many trees were weakened by the Dec. 17 windstorm.

“Given how wet our soils are at this point, probably a little easier to topple some trees, knock down some power lines, and create some power outages,” Buehner said.

He noted that evergreen trees are particularly vulnerable.

“The good thing is we don’t have leaves on trees at this point, but all the evergreens themselves will be vulnerable,” Buehner said.

What to expect the rest of the week

Allard outlined the forecast leading up to and beyond the potential Wednesday storm:

Monday: Showers through the morning, then increasing clouds with rain arriving after 4 or 5 p.m. Breezy to windy conditions, with a wind advisory for areas north of Admiralty Inlet where gusts could exceed 40 mph. Snow for the mountain passes.

Tuesday: Drier conditions expected.

Wednesday (Christmas Eve): The day to watch. Potential for strong south winds with gusts of 50 mph or higher from late morning through late afternoon, along with rain.

Thursday and Friday: Scattered showers, nothing remarkable, with potentially drier weather into the weekend.

How to prepare for possible Christmas Eve power outages

Buehner urged residents to prepare now rather than wait.

“Be prepared for the potential of power outages,” he said. “If you have generators, make sure they’re fueled up and exhausted outdoors, not inside, so that you don’t have any carbon monoxide issues.”

For those without generators, Buehner recommends gathering flashlights and fresh batteries. Battery-powered radios remain a reliable way to get updates when the power goes out.

The forecast should come into sharper focus later Monday as new model runs come in.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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