Political spending battle heats up in Washington as Democrats seek supermajority

A political spending battle between supporters of Washington Democrats and Republicans is shaping up to be one of the most interesting storylines for the upcoming election.

It’s being fueled by a court ruling that made permanent new legislative district boundaries. Democrats are seizing on that ruling, believing it could lead to a supermajority in both the State Senate and House of Representatives.

A supermajority would allow Democrats to pass changes to the state’s constitution, such as lowering the threshold to pass tax levies in local elections. School districts across the state have been asking for such a measure to rebuild schools.

The Democrats are four seats short of a supermajority in the Senate and eight seats short in the House. It looks like there is a real chance of that happening in the Senate, but less likely in the House, according to election forecaster CNalysis.

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Why do Washington Democrats feel they have chance of securing more power?

In 2023, U.S. District Court Judge Robert Lasnik ruled the state’s Redistricting Commission improperly redrew the boundary lines of the state’s 15th legislative district, which includes the Yakima Valley. Judge Lasnik ruled it discriminated against the voting rights of Latinos.

As a result, the boundaries of 13 state legislative districts were redrawn, favoring Democrats, said Republicans at the time.

Having previously looked at the Senate races where flips could happen, let’s look at key races in the House considered toss-ups or slightly tilting in favor of Democrats or Republicans. Several of them are in recently redrawn districts.

A key race to follow, considered a toss-up by election forecaster CNalysis, is the contest between Republican Jesse Young and Democrat Adison Richards for the 26th District 1 seat representing much of Kitsap County.

Richards received 49.6% of the vote in the August 6 primary. Young received 33.9% but split the Republican vote with Republican Jim Henderson. Combined, the two Republicans garnered 50.2% of the primary vote.

Democrats are hoping to flip the seat being vacated by Rep. Spencer Hutchins (R-Gig Harbor), who didn’t seek re-election after serving one term.

Young had held the same seat for four terms but gave it up when he ran unsuccessfully for State Senate. Now, he wants his old seat back.

Richards is a newcomer to seeking elected office but currently leads in total contributions of $438,297.07 over $244,623.48 for Young, according to the Washington State Public Disclosure Commission. Richards has spent $381,495.07 to Young’s $211,051.05.

With nearly $700,000 raised so far, this has become a battleground district for both sides.

Another race considered a toss-up by CNalysis is for Representative in the 14th Legislative District, Position 1, between Republican Gloria Mendoza and Democrat Chelsea Dimas.

This is where redistricting has caused a real shakeup. The incumbent Rep. Chris Corry (R-Yakima) no longer lives in the 14th District because of the redrawn district and is instead running for the House seat in his new district, the 15th District.

Democrats are hoping Dimas can flip the seat their way, and the political spending shows they are putting money into the race.

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So far, Dimas, a communications professional, is ahead in contributions, totaling $191,899.34, compared to $135,669.77 for Mendoza, the former mayor of Grandview.

For Position 2 in the same 14th District, CNalysis has the race tilting slightly in favor of Democrat Ana Ruiz Kennedy over Republican Deb Manjarrez.

How redistricting plays role in race for Position 2

Redistricting plays a big role in this race too, after Rep. Gina Mosbrucker (R-Goldendale) found she now lives in the 17th District and decided not to seek a sixth term. Again, Democrats are spending big money in an effort to flip the seat.

Ruiz Kennedy, who works for a non-profit in Wapato, leads in fundraising with $262,312.39 over Manjarrez’s $158,757.77, who is a farmer from Pasco.

Democrats are also throwing big dollars into the race for Representative in the 17th District, Position 2, covering the Vancouver area.

Redistricting has caused a change in this race as well, after incumbent Rep. Paul Harris (R-Vancouver) did not seek re-election and is running for the State Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Lynda Wilson (R-Vancouver) after the redrawn lines moved her home address out of the district.

CNalysis has the race tilting slightly for Washougal Mayor, Republican David Stuebe, over healthcare worker Democrat Terri Niles from Vancouver.

The Camas-Washougal Post-Record reported that Stuebe said he will stay on as mayor if he’s elected to the state House.

Niles leads in fundraising with $212,150.38 to Stuebe’s $168,322.64. Niles has also outspent Stuebe, with expenditures totaling $173,331.22 to Stuebe’s $97,421.06.

In the race for Representative of the 18th District, Position 2, Democrat John Zingale, a middle school history teacher from Vancouver, is running against Republican John Ley, a retired airline pilot and former print reporter from Camas.

Ley is still facing felony election fraud charges stemming from his run for the same seat in 2022. He’s accused of not living in the district in 2022. He has since moved into the district for the 2024 election.

Democrats are hoping the money being spent on Zingale will flip the seat in their favor. CNalysis lists it as tilting Republican in favor of Ley, despite the huge lead Democrats have in fundraising for Zingale.

Zingale has reported contributions of $221,937.93 to Ley’s $19,820. Expenditures are reported as $182,663.16 for Zingale to Ley’s $15,449.49.

CNalysis favors Republicans in 3 other races

There are three other races where CNalysis has Republicans slightly favored. Incumbent Rep. Stephanie McClintock (R-Vancouver) is slightly favored over her Democratic challenger Deken Letinich, although Letinich has a slight lead in contributions with $140,197.13 to McClintock’s $133,798.75.

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In the 25th District, which includes Puyallup, incumbent Kelly Chambers (R-Puyallup) is leaving her seat to run for Pierce County Executive.

Enter two newcomers, Republican Michael Keaton, a former Air Force pilot and school board member, and Democrat Cameron Severns, who describes himself as a business owner.

Severns leads in fundraising, hoping to flip the seat for the Democrats. He reports $155,097.96 in contributions to Keaton’s $80,715.24.

Finally, there’s the effort to unseat incumbent Michelle Caldier (R-Gig Harbor). This is the only race listed in this article where the Republican has received more contributions than the Democrat.

Caldier reports contributions of $165,027.30 compared to her Democratic challenger Tiffany Kaye Mitchell, a former member of the Oregon State Legislature, with $139,905.90.

That leaves one more seat for the Democrats to flip to get a supermajority in the House.

Matt Markovich often covers the state legislature and public policy for KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of Matt’s stories here. Follow him on X, or email him here.

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