Polling Washington: Predicting races for president, senate, governor, 3rd Congressional District
Oct 29, 2024, 6:29 PM
People wait in line on Election Day in the parking lot of King County Elections office in Renton, Washington. (Photo: Jason Redmond/AFP via Getty Images)
(Photo: Jason Redmond/AFP via Getty Images)
It’s a rhetorical question pollsters like to ask themselves just days before an election: did my poll actually predict the outcome? With that in mind, I went back to review all publicly reported polling in Washington related to the races for president, senate, governor and one House of Representatives seat.
To start, let’s acknowledge that polling is expensive — especially when news organizations hire pollsters to provide results intended for the public.
Campaigns conduct internal polling constantly, but they rarely want to reveal their findings. After all, why share insights with the opposition, who can use that information against them?
I may be stating the obvious, but the results in Washington will likely reflect its overall Democratic lean.
Similar to how sports fans watch the point spread, politicians proudly highlight their margin of victory once all votes are counted — though this year, when those results are finalized is anybody’s guess.
Presidential race
One key pivot point is August 1, when Kamala Harris became the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. Up until that point, polling reflected a Biden-Trump faceoff.
In mid-July, DHM Research polled 500 registered voters and found a Biden-Trump split of 45% to 38%, showing Biden with a 7-point lead. A Harris-Trump matchup showed a narrower margin of 45% to 40%, giving Harris a 5-point lead.
Since Harris joined the ticket, five polls have shown her leading Trump, with margins ranging from a high of +25 points in Elway Research’s October 6-12 poll to a low of +15 in an October 16-17 poll by the Democratic-funded Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI).
Trump’s support ranged from 32% in the Elway poll to 40% in the Northwest Progressive Institute’s poll. Ultimately, Harris is almost certain to win Washington and its 12 electoral votes.
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Senate race
In the race between Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell and her Republican challenger, Raul Garcia, polling shows a similar trend.
Four polls among likely voters, taken from mid-July to mid-October, have consistently favored Cantwell with spreads between +21 and +23 points.
The Northwest Progressive Institute’s October poll showed a 53% to 38% lead for Cantwell — a 15-point difference. It’s almost certain Cantwell will retain her seat for another six-year term.
Gubernatorial race
Polling in the governor’s race similarly favors Democrat Bob Ferguson over Republican Dave Reichert.
Since the August 6 primary, which advanced both candidates to the general election, five polls of likely voters and one of registered voters have been released.
Ferguson’s lead has ranged from +4 on August 30 to +16 on October 14. The latest poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute, conducted October 17, shows Ferguson leading by 7 points, at 48% to 41%. At no point did Reichert come to a point where Ferguson’s lead was in jeopardy.
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3rd Congressional District
The 3rd Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez and Republican challenger Joe Kent appears to be a toss-up, according to available polls.
The Northwest Progressive Institute’s June 12 poll showed Kent with a +1 lead, while another poll on June 20 found the candidates tied. Both were conducted before the August primary. A more recent poll on October 2 by NPI showed a dead heat, with both candidates at 46% and 8% undecided.
Prediction markets
For those interested, the prediction market Kalshi has “traded” $103 million so far on the presidential election. A $100 bet on Donald Trump winning would currently yield $156. However, betting $100 on Trump losing offers a larger payoff of $270. The platform allows bets up to $7 million.
Matt Markovich often covers the state legislature and public policy for KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of Matt’s stories here. Follow him on X, or email him here.
