Former WA attorney general predicts Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs

After months of waiting, a Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs could come as soon as this week, potentially reshaping the balance of power between Congress and the White House on trade policy.

The justices heard oral arguments in November on challenges to Trump’s authority to impose broad tariffs through a series of executive orders issued in 2025. The cases center on whether the president exceeded his authority by relying on a decades-old emergency statute to bypass Congress.

“This does feel like a long time ago,” former Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna told “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio, recalling the arguments. “But based on how those arguments went, nearly every commentator expects the court to rule against the administration.”

Trump’s emergency powers argument met skepticism

At issue is the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump invoked to justify tariffs on imports from China, India, Canada, Mexico, and other countries. The administration argued the opioid epidemic and the U.S. trade deficit constituted a national emergency, allowing the president to act unilaterally.

Trump has repeatedly promoted the tariffs as a financial boon for the government, saying the revenue would be used to fund tax rebates for lower-income families and to reduce the national debt. But skepticism from the bench was evident during oral arguments, McKenna noted. A central concern was that the 1977 law does not explicitly authorize tariffs.

“The act doesn’t even mention the word ‘tariffs,’” McKenna said. “It’s not at all clear that it allows the president to impose global tariffs, as opposed to taking much narrower actions, like targeted sanctions.”

There is no formal deadline for the court to issue its decision. The justices could wait until the end of June, when the court typically wraps up its term. Still, legal observers believe a ruling could come sooner, possibly as early as Friday, based on the court’s schedule.

“There’s been speculation before that an opinion was imminent, and it didn’t happen,” McKenna said.

At one point, some commentators suggested the court delayed releasing its decision because Trump was attending the World Economic Forum in Davos and aggressively promoting his trade agenda abroad.

“He’s not overseas now,” McKenna said. “So this Friday could be the day.”

Multiple paths to striking down tariffs

While the outcome appears likely, the reasoning behind it may be complex. McKenna said the justices could invalidate the tariffs on several legal grounds, including separation of powers or the so-called major questions doctrine, which limits executive authority on issues of vast economic significance without clear congressional approval.

“There could be disagreement within the court over how exactly to overturn the tariffs,” he said. “Some justices might say the president lacks authority for global tariffs but could still impose narrower, country-by-country measures. Others may say tariff-setting is clearly and exclusively Congress’s job.”

Those internal differences could explain why the opinion has taken months to finalize, McKenna said, as the justices work to secure a majority or plurality around a common legal rationale.

If the court rules that Trump lacked authority to impose the tariffs, the financial consequences could be significant. Companies that paid the import duties would likely be entitled to refunds.

“Some companies are already applying for refunds,” McKenna said, citing Costco as a prominent local example. “We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars that the federal government may have to pay back.”

Manda Factor is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. Follow Manda on X and email her here. 

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