Snow this week! How much?

It’s mid-winter break in Seattle and the kids would love to have some snow to play in later this week. I’ve seen some predictions of up to six inches of snow.

Before they get too excited (or I get too worried) about snow, I went directly to the local weather expert, KING 5’s Jeff Renner. After all, we did hear this was going to be an awful La Nina year, and it hasn’t really been too bad. We also heard snow predictions last week, and just a few areas ended up shoveling. Here’s what Renner tells me about the chance of snow this week:

There’s a better chance, Linda. Last time, we emphasized there was a chance, but it was by no means a strong chance, and that amounts would likely range from zero to a couple of inches. Unfortunately the teases were remembered more than the specifics.

This time, the path of the disturbance is much closer; (the last time the disturbance initially was just offshore, and then moved even farther offshore). There’s a chance of a little sporadic snow shower activity overnight into the early AM in eastern King and south Snohomish county, but not much. We could see some mixed precipitation during the day. The best chance will be overnight tomorrow night into Wednesday. Up to 6″ is possible, but not likely at all over the immediate Seattle metro area. The heavier amounts will be most likely over/near the foothills and then from north King county up to the border. Much lighter amounts are possible over the metro area south and west ward based on the computer guidance we’ve seen to date. Of course, we’ll continue to revise this as we have new guidance to examine.

Another weather specialist I follow is UW Atmospheric Scientist Cliff Mass, who updated his weather blog:

There is little doubt that there will be some snow showers with this system, but serious snow demands more. If the low remains offshore of the north WA coast the easterlies will move down the Strait and some of them will plow into the Olympics, hitting the north Olympic communities with snow. Those retired folks will have to switch from golf to x-country skiing for a while! If the low moves southward, then southerlies moving up the Sound could plow right into them, give decent lowland snow over the Sound. In any case, there will be an interface between the northeasterlies and southerlies that will produce a significant snowfall somewhere, most probably over NW Washington.

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